Logical Reasoning

PT152 · S4 · Q11 To be considered for this year’s Gillespie Grant

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To be considered for this year’s Gillespie Grant, applications must be received in Gillespie City by October 1.

Conclusion

Assuming Mary is sending an app by regular mail from Greendale, if her application is not mailed ten days before the due date, she will not be considered for the grant.

Evidence

If the app isn't received in GC by Oct 1, then not considered for the grant.

It can take up to ten days to send regular mail from G to GC.

Evaluate

How can we argue the Anti-Conclusion, that Mary might send an app by regular mail from Greendale, let's say nine days before the due date, but she is still considered for the grant?

We could just say . We were told that it takes up to ten 10 days (10 max), not that it takes 10 days (10 min).

She could have said, . But this is saying, .

Goal

Look for an answer addressing the author's confusion that "up to 10 days" does not literally mean "it always takes at least 10 days".

11.

The reasoning in the argument is flawed in that the argument

  1. does not establish that Mary

    Not Needed

    The author doesn't need to establish that Mary is doing anything for his hypothetical conclusion to still be true. When I say, "If we build a colony on Mars, it will have a sports bar", I'm not assuming we are going to build a colony on Mars. I'm making a hypothetical argument, that in a world in which we did build a colony on Mars, there would be a sports bar. You can never hurt a hypothetical conclusion by saying that the IF part of it is unlikely to happen. You can only hurt a hypothetical conclusion by playing along with the IF part and then disagreeing with the THEN part.

    2% picked this

  2. does not determine how long

    Irrelevant

    Since the conclusion is only evaluating a hypothetical about a piece of regular mail going from Greendale to Gillespie City, it's irrelevant how long it takes express mail to make that trip.

    3% picked this

  3. Correct

    does not consider the minimum

    Why this is right

    The evidence says the maximum time it will take is 10 days (up to ten days). But given that the minimum time might be 2 or 3 days, the author's conclusion could easily be wrong. We could object to this argument by saying, "Yo, author, regular mail can get from G to GC in as little as 2 days". This blows up her conclusion, since she is arguing, "If it's sent 9 or fewer days before the due date, (it won't arrive by due date, so) the app will not be considered for the grant". If the minimum delivery time is 2 days, then there's no reason to accept the certain pessimism of her conclusion. There's plenty of room for hope that an application sent by regular mail, even 5 days before the due date, might still get there in time to be considered.

    Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    62% picked this

  4. presumes, without providing justification, that

    Too Strong

    Too Strong: satisfy all Out of Scope: other requirements The author never brings up other requirements, and the author never promises us that "if she mails it ten or more days out from the due date, she'll definitely be considered".

    31% picked this

  5. overlooks the possibility that Mary

    Out of Scope: express mail

    The argument never brings up express mail, and we don't need to bring up express mail to tell this author what's wrong with her logic: she treats up to 10 days like it means definitely 10 days.

    2% picked this

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