Student: My university recently enacted new penalties for drinking alcohol in on-campus student housing.
Conclusion (Thus)
These new penalties for drinking alcohol in on-campus housing are bound to be just as ineffective as past attempts.
Evidence
The university has attempted many times before and they've never been successful.
Evaluate
This is a very pessimistic argument! Because all my previous songs have not been hits, I'll never write a hit song? Because my soccer team has lost in all its previous games, it will never win a game?
This type of thinking, , is ignoring the fact that things change.
Maybe this song is different from the other ones I've written. Maybe today's soccer game is different from the other ones we've played (the other team is way worse than usual; our team just got a new player who's way better than our previous best player).
Goal
The fancy formal term for this type of argument is a Temporal Flaw, assuming that .
A more conversational objection would be something like,