Logical Reasoning

PT148 · S4 · Q15 Global warming has contributed to a rise

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Global warming has contributed to a rise in global sea level not only because it causes glaciers and ice sheets to melt, but also simply because when water is heated its volume increases.

Information

causal (X has contributed to Y)

Global ⇢ glaciers / ice ⇢ rise in global warming sheets melt sea level

Global ⇢ volume of heated ⇢ rise in global warming water increases sea level

causal difference-maker (if not for X, less Y)

artificial reservoirs reduces the rise were built to contain ⇢ in global sea level a great deal of water

Evaluate / Goal

We have three causal connections. They don't quite chain together, but they all relate to rising global sea level.

Perhaps the correct answer will convey some aspect of the fact that . But it's hard to predict. Let's just pick the most provable answer.

15.

Which one of the following can most reasonably be concluded on the basis of the information above?

  1. The exact magnitude of the

    Out of Scope: in dispute

    Nothing in this paragraph deals with people disputing the exact amount by which the sea level has risen.

    7% picked this

  2. Rises in global sea level

    Out of Scope: difficult to explain

    We have no support for claiming that previous rises in global sea level were hard to explain.

    1% picked this

  3. Little is known about the

    Too Strong: little is known

    It seems like the first sentence nearly contradicts this answer. We clearly know two things when it comes to how global warming contributes to the rise in global sea level. We have zero support for the claim that "little is known" and seemingly have contra-support.

    1% picked this

  4. The amount of water in

    Too Strong: equal

    There's no way to derive from this paragraph that the amount of water that results from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets is identical to the amount of water in those reservoirs.

    9% picked this

  5. Correct

    The amount of water that

    Why this is right

    It's very weak, lovable wording to hear "X cannot be determined by looking at Y alone". It is extreme to say "X can be determined by looking at Y alone", so it is weak to rule it out. If we see that global sea level has risen 2 inches, would that tell us that glaciers and ice sheets have melted the amount of water it takes to raise the sea level by 2 inches? No, because we know that these artificial reservoirs we've built are hiding some of the real increase. The rise in global sea level would be more than 2 inches if it weren't for these reservoirs. The melting of glaciers and ice sheets may have been enough to raise sea level 3 inches, but because we captured so much water in these reservoirs, it only went up 2 inches. Let's say we started a lemonade stand and started a bank account for all the revenue we make from that lemonade stand. You look at the bank account and see there's $1000 in there. Can you determine by looking at that number alone how much revenue we've made from the lemonade stand? No, not if told you, "That bank account balance is lower than it would otherwise be, since we loaned some money to our friend from that account so that he could start his own cupcake stand." Since this loan makes the bank account smaller than it otherwise would be, we can't determine how much revenue the lemonade stand brought in simply by looking at the bank account balance. Similarly, since these reservoirs make the sea level rise less than it otherwise would, we can't just look at the rising sea level and use that on its own to calculate how much new water there is from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Additionally, the expanding volume of water is contributing to the rise in sea level, so even if there weren't reservoirs, we couldn't attribute the full 2 inch rise to the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Part of the rise is attributable to the expanded volume of warmer water. (We would need to also know how much that expansion contributes to the rise, in order to then determine how much of the rise came purely from melting).

    Skill tested: Most Supported · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    82% picked this

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