Logical Reasoning

PT154 · S2 · Q23 The effects of global warming

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The effects of global warming on the polar ice caps have been studied with computer models.

Background

If global warming raises the global temperature by as little as 2 degrees Celsius, the seawater will rise and melt the ice caps considerably.

Surprising Claim

But in that same scenario, the volume of the ice caps would increase.

Evaluate / Goal

Given That Rising seawater from a warmer planet would melt the ice caps considerably,

How Can We Say That The ice caps would grow in volume?

23.

Which one of the following, if true, would most help to resolve the apparent paradox described above?

  1. Correct

    As global temperatures increase, more

    Why this is right

    How could the volume of the ice caps increase? According to this, more seawater evaporation would lead to more snow at the polar caps, and then that snow would melt and refreeze as ice. So even though rising seawater is melting the ice caps, it's also sending more snow their way, and that snow adds onto the ice cap, increasing its volume.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    81% picked this

  2. As global temperatures increase, more

    Too Weak

    How could the volume of the ice caps increase? According to this, the end result of the causal chain would be stabilizing the size of the ice caps. We're trying to explain how the ice caps would increase in size, not stabilize (i.e. stay the same).

    5% picked this

  3. As sea temperatures increase, the

    Deepens Paradox

    How could the volume of the ice caps increase? According to this, the end result of the causal chain would be that the water melts the ice even faster. We're trying to explain how the ice caps would increase in size, and this is saying the opposite, that they would melt even faster.

    3% picked this

  4. As sea temperatures increase, evaporation

    Opposite

    How could the volume of the ice caps increase? According to this, the end result of the causal chain would be that the freezing point of seawater is even lower. That means it needs to be colder for seawater to turn into ice caps. It would be harder for the ice caps to grow, if the world is warmer than before and the temperature needed to turn seawater into ice is lower than before.

    10% picked this

  5. As global temperatures increase, more

    Unclear Impact

    How could the volume of the ice caps increase? According to this, the end result of the causal chain would be less variation in temperature overall. If the coldest climate is currently -20 degrees Celsius and the warmest is +30 degrees, then in this new global warming world, it would be more like -10 to +25. A smaller overall range of temperature variation has no common sense link to "ice caps would increase in size".

    1% picked this

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