Journalist: Despite the recent spate

Answer choices

1. A

   Too Strong: major factor4% picked this

   The economic policies pursued by the government are a major factor in producing

   The author could believe major factor, minor factor, no factor ... it wouldn't make any difference in her argument. She only needs to believe that voters tend to vote for incumbents when the economy is doing well. That may be because voters are convinced that the incumbent government must be a major factor in why the economy is sizzling, but our author doesn't need to have that belief. She's just predicting an election result, not evaluating it as a right / wrong.

   4%
2. B

   Out of Scope: investment choices11% picked this

   The investment choices of voters tend to reflect their

   This argument doesn't need to assume that voters invest any money, let alone that they invest it in a way that reflects their politics. The author has to assume that "if investors are confident in the economy, then so too are voters", but that doesn't require that voters are themselves investors. Our author is thinking that the political preferences of voters will tend to reflect their confidence in the economy, not that their political affiliations will tell them where to invest their money.

   11%
3. C

   Correct77% picked this

   The economic attitudes of investors do not differ greatly from those of

   Why this is right

   In order for the author's claim 2 and claim 3 to join forces, we need to assume that "if investors are confident, then voters are confident". This answer choice is addressing that gap. If we hadn't anticipated this gap, we should still have slowed down and considered this answer when we saw its enticing ruling out "no / not" language (which is a hallmark of many correct Necessary Assumption answers). If we negate this answer, does it weaken? The economic attitudes of investors do differ greatly from those of voters in general. Yes! The author only established that investors are confident in the economy. But her election prediction hinges on the idea that voters are confident in the economy and will thus reward the incumbent party by "renewing their lease".

   Skill tested: Necessary Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   77%
4. D

   Opposite, if anything8% picked this

   Voters generally attribute some responsibility for the state of the economy to the policies

   The notion of previous governments is completely out of scope. We only care about who will likely win this upcoming election. Since the author is predicting that voters will reward the incumbents with a victory based on the successful economy, she is probably thinking that voters credit the current government with the state of the economy.

   8%
5. E

   Out of Scope Comparison1% picked this

   Voters are usually more loyal to parties than to

   Nothing in this argument deals with the distinction between supporting a party and supporting an individual politician. The author's logic doesn't care whether people are usually more loyal to A than B, more loyal to B than A, or loyal to both of them about equally. It has no logical bearing on her prediction about the upcoming election.

   1%