Logical Reasoning

PT154 · S2 · Q17 Consultant: The mayor shouldn't adopt

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Consultant: The mayor shouldn’t adopt her rival’s controversial proposal for solving the city’s budget problem.

Conclusion (shouldn't = opinion)

The mayor shouldn't adopt her rival's controversial proposal for solving the city's budget problem.

Evidence

If she adopts the proposal and it succeeds, she'll potentially increase her rival's credibility.

If she adopts the proposal and it fails, she'll get blamed for endorsing a crazy idea.

Evaluate

Structurally, it feels like the the argument is saying:

CONC: we shouldn't do X.

EVID: If X succeeds, something bad happens to us. If X fails, something bad happens to us.

Goal

Look for a conclusion saying "we shouldn't do something", and premises (probably both conditional) that feel like "damned if we do, damned if we don't".

17.

Which one of the following arguments is most closely parallel in its reasoning to the argument above?

  1. Zvi should continue practicing his

    Weak Conclusion Match Bad Premise Match

    The conclusion is a quick red flag, since it's saying we should do something, not shouldn't. But potentially they could still be pretty logically similarly to the original argument by giving us premises that are like, "After all, if he stops practicing and X happens, something bad. If he stops practicing and X doesn't happen, something bad." The easier way to kill this answer is that the two premises don't have opposite triggers. In the original, it was if it succeeds, something bad if it fails, something bad This argument's premise triggers are if he stops if he loses any ground Those aren't opposites. The 2nd one was chaining onto the first one.

    2% picked this

  2. Joni should not self-publish her

    Bad Premise Match

    The conclusion is potentially fine, but we need a pair of binary conditionals for our evidence. If self-publishing goes well, this bad thing happens. If self-publishing goes poorly, this bad thing happens. Instead the two premises just bring up separate considerations that aren't linked by some "damned if you do, damned if you don't" binary.

    20% picked this

  3. Despite his current financial predicament,

    Bad Premise Match

    The conclusion is potentially fine, but we need a pair of binary conditionals for our evidence. If selling his collection goes well, this bad thing happens. If selling his collection goes poorly, this bad thing happens. Instead the two premises just bring up separate considerations that aren't linked by some "damned if you do, damned if you don't" binary.

    1% picked this

  4. Correct

    Alvin should not submit his

    Why this is right

    The conclusion is saying someone shouldn't do X. The evidence is a pair of conditionals, with opposite triggers, showing that either way you slice it, something bad happens: if paper is accepted, bad thing. if paper is rejected, bad thing.

    Skill tested: Parallel · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    74% picked this

  5. Elisa should call the tourist

    Bad Premise Match

    The conclusion is that someone should do something, not shouldn't, so it starts off with a big red flag. This argument does go off a pair of binary premises, but it's not a damned if you do, damned if you don't combo. It's a "if we do X, bad thing ... if we don't do X, good thing". if wait longer, bad thing. if call now, good thing. Thus, should call now. The original argument was more like, if X goes this way, bad thing. if X goes the other way, also bad thing. Thus, should not do X.

    3% picked this

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