PT150 S3 Q7 ExplanationPollster: When opinion researchers

Answer choices, explained

1. A

   Weakens, if anything1% picked this

   Using data from the national census is not the only way for opinion researchers to get a population sample that reflects the

   This makes it sound like pollsters have other ways to cross-reference the data they get from the census, which means a change to census participation might not really mess up the pollsters' samples. If we negate this and say, "using census data is the only way for pollsters to get a population sample", that would help the author argue that if we tinker with census data we might make population samples less accurate.

   1%
2. B

   Irrelevant Distinction17% picked this

   Among people who do not currently participate in the national census, few, if any, would agree to participate

   Would it hurt the argument if we negated this and said that there are tons of people currently abstaining from the mandatory census who would actually start doing the census if it were voluntary? No, that's weird but fine. The premise doesn't change — in the end the participation rate would be much lower. If that comes about because 1 million people who did the mandatory census won't do the voluntary whereas 500,000 people who didn't do the mandatory will do the voluntary, that doesn't change anything about the author's argument. In fact that weird flux where cooperators now abstain and abstainers now cooperate makes it more likely that the sample of people participating has meaningfully changed.

   17%
3. C

   Correct73% picked this

   The group of people who would participate in a voluntary national census would differ in its demographic characteristics from the group of people who

   Why this is right

   If we negate this, we get the objection we were predicting: the group of people who would participate in a voluntary census would not differ (would be identical, demographically, to the people who were participating in the mandatory one). If the mandatory census was 52% women, 48% men and the people who respond to the voluntary census are also 52% women, 48% men, then you're getting the same demographic profile of the country for that demographic characteristic. If this were the same for all demographic characteristics, then the census data between the mandatory and voluntary would be identical in terms of percent's, and that's all that matters when you're a pollster trying to construct a representative sample.

   Skill tested: Necessary Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   73%
4. D

   Irrelevant Comparison5% picked this

   The people who refuse to participate in opinion polls comprise a group with approximately the same demographic characteristics as the group of people who

   The author hasn't said or implied anything about the group of people who refuse to participate in opinion polls. He doesn't care whether their demographic characteristics are similar or different compared to any other group.

   5%
5. E

   Irrelevant Distinction3% picked this

   The percentage of the nation’s population that does not participate in the mandatory national census does not change significantly

   This has the tempting ruling out "not / no" form. When we negate this answer we get that "the percent of people participating in the mandatory national census does vary a lot from census to census", does that hurt the argument? Not really. The author is just saying that a voluntary census would have a much lower participation rate, which is compatible with ups and downs. If we saw the up and down of the participation rate of mandatory census on a line graph, the author is just saying that the participation rate of the voluntary census would be a line whose data points are lower than they would be if the census were mandatory. Perhaps an easier way to assess this is to ask yourself, "was the author assuming that participation in the mandatory census very, very consistent?" Nothing in the argument suggests that.

   3%