Logical Reasoning

PT150 · S3 · Q12 Doctor: There will be more local cases

A free, expert breakdown of this official LSAT Logical Reasoning question.

  • Save & drill this skill — build targeted practice sets from questions like this one

  • Video walkthroughs — watch every question solved step by step

  • 81 official LSATs — as questions, timed sections & full-length tests

Start practicing free

Doctor: There will be more local cases of flu infection this year than there were last year.

Conclusion (prediction = opinion)

There will be more local cases of flu this year than last year.

Evidence

In addition to the strains of flu that were present last year, a new strain of flu has infected some people this year.

Evaluate

The evidence is talking about the number of strains this year vs. last year. The conclusion is talking about the number of cases of the flu.

So we can tell that the author seems to be assuming, .

Does that have to be true?

Not necessarily. There are more strains of Covid now than at the beginning of the pandemic (alpha, delta, omicron, Ba2) but there are fewer cases now than at earlier points in the pandemic. Why? There are more vaccinated and previously-infected people at this point in the pandemic than before.

Similarly, there might be salient differences this year with the flu. Maybe more people are vaccinated. Maybe tons of people moved away. Maybe people are doing a better job of social distancing / masking / avoiding crowded indoor spaces.

Goal

The correct answer needs to convince us of more cases than last year, so that New Concept in the Conclusion should be in the correct answer.

It should take us from what we know, i.e. and then somehow guarantee that # of cases is also higher.

12.

The conclusion of the doctor’s argument can be properly drawn if which one of the following is assumed?

  1. Effective approaches have been developed

    Weakens, if anything

    The concept of whether or not any treatment or effective approaches are available is totally immaterial to our inquiry. We care about one thing and one thing only: number of cases. If this answer is saying "we now have effective approaches to deal with last year's strain", that sounds like it could mean that we'll be better at avoiding that strain and have fewer cases, which would just weaken.

    0% picked this

  2. It is rare for new

    No Impact

    Whether it's rare or common changes nothing. We know there's a new strain. All we care about is the mathematical comparison of # of cases this year vs. last year, and this answer isn't even addressing number of cases.

    0% picked this

  3. The new strain of flu

    Unrelated to Goal: approaches

    Just like with (A), this is talking about something we don't care about: approaches to dealing with the flu. And it's not talking about what we do care about: number of cases.

    23% picked this

  4. The new strain of flu

    Unrelated to Goal: danger

    This is talking about something we don't care about: the danger of the new strain compared to last year's strain. And it's not talking about what we do care about: number of cases.

    4% picked this

  5. Correct

    There will be no decline

    Why this is right

    We could find this correct answer simply by looking for the New Concept in Conclusion! This is the only answer to talk about "number of cases", which is the essence of the claim we're trying to prove. We know that this year has more strains than last year (all of the strains from last year + a new one). This answer says that there will be no decline this year in the number of cases due to last year's strains. So if last year's strains caused 1,000 cases last year, then this answer is guaranteeing us that last year's strains will cause at least 1,000 cases this year. But that just proves that this year's number of cases will be at least as high as last year's. How do we know it will be more? We're also told that the new strain has infected some people this year (at least one). So we know that we have at least 1,001 cases of flu this year. If you prefer charts ... LAST YEAR THIS YEAR cases from x x or more old strains cases from 0 1 or more new strain total cases x x+1 or more

    Skill tested: Sufficient Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    72% picked this

Continue the review in LSAT Lab

Save this question, watch the video walkthrough, and drill similar questions in your LSAT Lab account.

Save and practice this skill
LSAT Lab

Turn this review into a targeted study plan.

Save this question, drill more like it, watch the video walkthrough, and track your progress in your LSAT Lab account.

Start practicing free