Logical Reasoning

PT144 · S2 · Q25 It is likely that most of the new

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It is likely that most of the new television programs Wilke & Wilke produce for this season will be canceled.

Conclusion

Most of W&W's new shows for this season will be canceled.

Evidence

Most of the shows they made for last year got canceled because not enough people watched. Their new shows are all police dramas, and most police dramas have not been popular in recent years.

Evaluate

This argument is making a prediction based on some trends, and Assuming Similarities along the way.

Since most of W&W's new shows last year got canceled, if we assume that W&W's shows new shows this year are similar, then they will probably get canceled too (if we also assume that audiences' tastes this season are similar to those of last season).

And since all of W&W's new shows are police dramas and most police dramas have failed in recent years, if we assume that W&W's police dramas are similar to those failed police dramas of recent years, then they will probably fail too (if we also assume that audiences' appetite for police dramas are similar).

Goal

Look for an answer saying - W&W's new shows are similar to last year's failed shows - W&W's police dramas are similar to the failed police dramas or - what audiences wanted last year / in recent years is similar to what audiences want this year

25.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps to strengthen the argument?

  1. Wilke & Wilke have produced

    Weakens, if anything

    This points to a difference between last year and this year, and differences are potentially going to weaken (unless the difference is that this year's shows are even worse than last year's shows).

    2% picked this

  2. Most of the shows that

    Weaker than the Correct Answer

    This does something, in the sense that it seems to draw a similarity between this year's W&W shows and last year's. However, we need to know about the new shows that W&W produced last season. This is just talking about "most of the shows they produced" which can include many long-running shows. If we knew that "most of the new shows they produced last season were police drama" then it would draw a sharper similarity between this year's crop of new shows and the failed crop of last year's new shows.

    14% picked this

  3. None of the shows that

    Weaker than Correct Answer

    This says: If it wasn't canceled, then it wasn't a police drama. So by contrapositive, if they made any police dramas last year, then those police dramas were canceled. This suffers from the same thing (B) does, which is that it's not about the new shows from last season, just any of the shows from last season. We don't know if any of the new shows W&W did last year were police dramas, so this rule doesn't really tell us anything yet.

    12% picked this

  4. Correct

    All of the new shows

    Why this is right

    This establishes the most relevant similarities. The new shows that got canceled last year were all police dramas. All the new shows this year are police dramas. So there's a lot of reason to think a similar outcome is probable (especially given the further context that police dramas have not been doing well in general for several years).

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    68% picked this

  5. None of the most popular

    No Impact

    We don't get much by finding out traits of the most popular TV shows last year, since this argument is just about whether or not a show will be popular enough to avoid being canceled. You don't have to be #1 in popularity to avoid being canceled. We already knew that most police dramas haven't been popular in recent years, so it doesn't feel like learning that "the top 5 shows from last year weren't police dramas" tells us anything we didn't already suspect.

    5% picked this

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