Logical Reasoning

PT136 · S4 · Q25 Numerous studies have demonstrated

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Numerous studies have demonstrated a pronounced negative correlation between high-fiber diets and the incidence of colon cancer.

Conclusion

Insufficient fiber consumption causes colon cancer, and sufficient consumption prevents it.

Evidence

Several studies show a negative correlation: high-fiber diet || lower incidence of colon cancer

Scandinavia: higher colon cancer || less cereal eating (cereal is high fiber)

Evaluate

Well the conclusion is way too strongly worded. Correlations between X and Y strengthen the plausibility that X causes Y, but they don't prove it (maybe Y causes X / maybe some third factor explains the correlation).

The first correlation could be vulnerable to reverse causality (maybe people who have colon cancer are put on low fiber diets). The Scandinavian finding could be easily weakened if we were to learn that even though they don't eat as much cereal, they eat way more fruits and veggies than usual (so they actually do have plenty of fiber in their diets).

Goal

It's hard to predict which angle the correct answer will take, but it will be some form of Causal-weakener that either - provides a different way to explain the correlation or - undermines the plausibility that eating fiber is good for preventing colon cancer.

25.

The argument's reasoning is vulnerable to criticism because the argument overlooks the possibility that

  1. the consumption of fiber in

    No Impact

    This doesn't help us assess whether or not fiber is having a causal effect on colon cancer. If we were told "the consumption of fiber is rising appreciably but the rate of colon cancer is steady / falling" then that could Weaken.

    1% picked this

  2. the risk of many types

    Out of Scope: other cancers Strengthens

    This mildly strengthens by boosting the plausibility somewhat that high-fiber might help prevent against colon cancer (since it reduces the risks of other cancers).

    2% picked this

  3. fiber is difficult for many

    Out of Scope: difficulty

    We're trying to assess whether or not fiber has a causal influence on colon cancer. The difficulty of including fiber is irrelevant. You can agree that "running up and down 500 steps will strengthen your legs and heart", even if running up and down 500 steps would be difficult to do.

    2% picked this

  4. the fiber in fruits and

    No Impact

    Without knowing what "different degrees" means, this answer doesn't really tell us anything. This could only really weaken if we found out that, "yes, cereal has fiber, but it's not the type of fiber that fights cancer", making the author's Scandinavian premise seem less relevant.

    12% picked this

  5. Correct

    foods containing fiber also contain

    Why this is right

    This gives us the classic 3rd factor way of providing a different explanation for a correlation. Maybe foods with lots of fiber have lots of iron, and iron helps prevent colon cancer. That would explain why eating lots of fiber is correlated with lower rates of colon cancer, but it would be wrong to say that "fiber decreases your risk" if it's really just the iron in the fibrous foods. It would allow the author to conclude "eating fibrous foods reduces your risk of cancer".

    Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    83% picked this

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