Logical Reasoning

PT126 · S1 · Q9 Several major earthquakes

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Several major earthquakes have occurred in a certain region over the last ten years.

Given

Several major earthquakes have occurred in a certain region over the last ten years.

Detected before each of these major quakes were certain changes in the electric current in the earth's crust.

Conclusion

A new earthquake prediction method promises to aid local civil defense officials in deciding exactly when to evacuate various towns.

Evaluate

In order for the earthquake prediction method to aid officials in deciding when to evacuate towns, it needs to be consistent from one earthquake event to the next. While the detected changes in the electric current occurred before each earthquake, were those detected changes consistent enough to base predictions on?

9.

Which one of the following, if true, most weakens the argument?

  1. Scientists do not fully understand

    Too Weak

    That scientists fully understand the changes in the electric current is not required in order for them to use the correlation between the change and earthquakes to make predictions about future earthquakes.

    8% picked this

  2. Most other earthquake prediction methods

    Strengthens

    This makes the new prediction method more accurate than previous methods, though this doesn’t.

    5% picked this

  3. The frequency of major earthquakes

    Out of Scope

    More frequent earthquakes don’t make it any easier or more difficult to predict the next earthquake using changes in electric current in the Earth’s crust. The question is not how frequent the predictions are, but rather how reliable they are.

    1% picked this

  4. Correct

    There is considerable variation in

    Why this is right

    The greater the variation in the length of time between the changes in the electric current and the subsequent the less accurate will be the prediction.

    Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    83% picked this

  5. There is presently only one

    Too Weak

    The one station may be more than enough to measure the changes in the electric current in the Earth’s crust.

    3% picked this

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