Logical Reasoning

PT123 · S2 · Q9 Although video game sales have increased

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Although video game sales have increased steadily over the past 3 years, we can expect a reversal of this trend in the very near future.

Conclusion

We can expect a reversal of this trend [increasing video game sales] in the very near future.

rephrase: in the very near future, video game sales will decrease.

Evidence (and)

Historically, over three quarters of video games sold have been purchased by people from 13 to 16 years of age.

The number of people in this age group is expected to decline steadily over the next 10 years.

Evaluate

The author is assuming that since there will be fewer people in the 13-16 year old age range, there will be fewer video games sold to people 13-16.

But it's possible that 13-16 year olds in the next 10 years buy more video games per person than they use to in years past. So even if there are fewer of them, they might still buy as many video games in total.

The author is thinking assuming that because 13-16 year olds have historically been the #1 video game buying demographic, they will continue to be the #1 demographic in the near future.

But maybe video games are changing. Maybe they're increasingly marketed towards 20 year olds or 10 year olds. It's possible that fewer games are purchased by 13-16 year olds, but because more video games are purchased by 20 year olds and 10 year olds, there are still increasing numbers of video games being sold.

Goal

To resist this Prediction argument, we would want to hear about something that is going to change in the near future that would allow there to still be just as many video games sold, even though there are fewer 13-16 year olds.

9.

Which one of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the argument?

  1. Most people 17 years old

    Strengthens

    This supports the argument’s conclusion that as the group of people between 13 and 16 years of age declines, overall sales of video games will decline as well.

    2% picked this

  2. Video game rentals have declined

    Strengthens / Unclear Impact

    This could mean that the whole market for video games is shrinking, which would help the author's prediction. (It's also possible that it means people are increasingly buying video games rather than renting them, which could weaken). The former is probably a more conservative interpretation than the latter, but at best we would still reject this and say it has Unclear Impact.

    1% picked this

  3. New technology will undoubtedly make

    Strengthens

    This provides more competition for video games and makes the conclusion more likely to be true.

    5% picked this

  4. The number of different types

    Too Weak

    If the number of different types of video games increased, that would undermine the argument by providing a way in which the video game market could grow. But this does not go so far as to say that the number of different types of video games will increase.

    2% picked this

  5. Correct

    Most of the people who

    Why this is right

    This provides a reason to believe that future sales of video games will not decline as a result of the fact that the number of people between 13 and 16 years of age declines. While it used to be the case that most video games were sold to people in the 13-16 year old demographic, that has apparently started changing over the last few years.

    Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    90% picked this

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