Logical Reasoning

PT122 · S2 · Q2 Statistical studies show that last

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Statistical studies show that last year there was the greatest drop in the violent crime rate over the course of a year since such statistics were first gathered.

Given that

Last year saw the largest one-year drop in the violent crime rate since such statistics were first gathered.

Why is it that

Public anxiety about violent crime substantially increased over the same period?

Evaluate

If people responded to the actual crime rate, anxiety should have fallen along with crime. Instead it rose. So people must be responding to something other than the statistics.

Anxiety is psychological, so we just need a story to tell for why the public's psychology about violent crime is worse than before.

Goal

Find an answer that gives us something that changed last year that would have a common sense effect of increasing people's concerns about violent crime.

It's not enough for them to be oblivious of the improved crime stats, because being oblivious would just mean "they didn't become less anxious". We want something that is actually making them fear violent crime more than before.

2.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps to resolve the apparent discrepancy described above?

  1. Longer prison sentences were the

    No Impact

    This explains why the crime rate dropped. We're looking for an answer that explains why people are more fearful of violent crime than before.

    2% picked this

  2. As in the past, last

    No Impact

    It's super unappealing to see this start, "as in the past ...", since we're looking for something new / different about last year. If the media were reporting an increase in public anxiety about violent crime, that could have a positive feedback loop and lead to more anxiety. So the fact that it's not being reported is sort of the opposite of helping us tell the story we need to tell. If this answer had said "last year's decrease in violent crime rate was underreported in the media", that would be better, but that would only explain why people aren't feeling better about crime; it wouldn't explain why they are feeling worse.

    3% picked this

  3. Most people can realistically assess

    Opposite (if anything)

    If most people accurately judged their risk of being a victim, their anxiety should have tracked the falling crime rate downward. This makes the rise in anxiety harder to explain, not easier.

    1% picked this

  4. People who feel the most

    No Impact

    This is presented as a timeless truth. There's nothing special that changed last year that would explain why there's a big uptick in public anxiety about violent crime (we would need to know that a lot of people moved into high crime rate areas last year).

    5% picked this

  5. Correct

    The proportion of violent crimes

    Why this is right

    This gives us something that changed last year (twice as much coverage of violent crimes in the news) that has a common sense connection to increased anxiety about violent crime. If you see more stories about crime in the news, you're likely to worry more about crime.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    89% picked this

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