Logical Reasoning

PT122 · S2 · Q12 It is primarily by raising interest

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It is primarily by raising interest rates that central bankers curb inflation, but an increase in interest rates takes up to two years to affect inflation.

Conclusion (thus)

Central bankers' success in temporarily restraining inflation may make it harder for them to ward off future inflation without incurring the public's wrath.

Evidence

The main tool central bankers have for curbing inflation is raising interest rates, but it can take up to two years for an increase in interest rate to affect inflation. Thus, central bankers need to kind of "guess early" and raise rates before inflation is excessive (possibly before inflation is even apparent).

But when people don't see clear evidence of inflation and interest rates go up, the public will feel like the central bankers are needlessly restraining a growing economy.

Evaluate

This argument is kind of like when your parent told you to pee before you left on a long car trip. You don't have to pee yet, so you're like, "C'mon, Mom, stop nagging me to pee." But in order to avert a bad situation later, you need to pee now.

Similarly, in order to avert a bad situation later (inflation), central bankers have to take an early action of raising interest rates. Since the public doesn't see an imminent need for raising interest rates, they end up getting mad at the central bankers.

The question is asking us about the very first claim in the paragraph. It's certainly part of the author's Support. It helps us to understand the precarious situation the central bankers are in.

They are tasked with helping an economy to avoid inflation, and their primary (i.e. #1) tool for doing so is a device that takes a while to make a difference (like turning the rudder of an aircraft carrier).

Goal

Look for something saying this first claim is a premise that helps us understand why central bankers need to act early enough that it confuses normal people who don't understand why these bankers are taking action so early.

12.

Which one of the following most accurately describes the role played in the argument by the claim that it is primarily by raising interest rates that central bankers curb inflation?

  1. It is presented as a

    Too Strong: complete explanation

    This is partial support. This is a component of the explanation. This one fact is not the complete explanation.

    3% picked this

  2. It is a description of

    Not a Phenomenon / Not Explained

    It's never explained why raising interest rates is the #1 tool central bankers have for curbing inflation. The fact that it takes up to two years for this tool to have an effect is not providing an explanation for why this is their #1 tool. If feels more like the opposite. "Gross! Your #1 tool needs almost two years to take effect? Can we get these central bankers a better tool? Why is this their #1 tool? I need an explanation!" When LSAT uses terms like phenomenon and explanation, we want to think about some Curious Fact or Curious Comparison that occurred or is occurring (as the Phenomenon) and the causal story behind that curious fact is the explanation.

    16% picked this

  3. Correct

    It is a premise offered

    Why this is right

    This is boring but true. Everything leading up to the final conclusion in the last sentence (signified by "Thus") was support. This answer is just saying that very first claim was offered in support for the conclusion, which is the last sentence.

    Skill tested: Role · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    65% picked this

  4. It is a conclusion for

    Wrong Role

    This first claim is not a Conclusion. No support is provided for why we should believe that "raising interest rates is the primary way that central bankers curb inflation". As discussed in (B), the fact that it takes up to two years before raising interest rates even takes effect is a bad thing. We don't want our tools to take a long time to have an effect. If we said, It is the Target near the Walgreen's that Patrick shops at, but this Target is much farther from his house than other Targets are. Would that 2nd idea support the 1st idea? Of course not. It's an opposing idea, signified by "but".

    3% picked this

  5. It is a premise offered

    Wrong Conclusion

    This answer correctly identifies the first claim as a premise, but it incorrectly identifies the 3rd sentence as a conclusion. We can tell from the "Thus" in the 4th sentence, that there's no way the 3rd sentence could be the main conclusion, since the 4th builds on the 3rd. But we can't say the 3rd sentence is a conclusion because no support is offered for it. Why should we believe that ... the public will resist inflation if they don't see inflation as an obvious risk? The argument never provides support. We can imagine what support would sound like: "the public desires that the economy grow as much as possible. The public knows that raising interest rates limits growth. The public doesn't understand that interest rates being raised won't take effect for a couple years".

    13% picked this

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