Cholesterol, which is a known factor in coronary heart disease and stroke, needs a carrier, known as a lipoprotein, to transport it through the bloodstream.
Conclusion (we can conclude)
HDLs help prevent coronary heart disease and stroke.
Evidence
Aerobic exercise increases one's levels of HDLs.
HDL levels are higher in women.
Aerobic exercise and being female are positively correlated with lower risk of coronary heart disease and stroke.
Evaluate
The author's conclusion is causal: HDLs help prevent coronary heart disease and stroke.
Was the evidence causal? Partly, yes. Aerobic exercise increases HDLs.
But partly, no. The final claim is a correlation: aerobic exercise is correlated positively with reduced risk of coronary heart disease and stroke, as is being female.
The author is thinking that the reason aerobic exercise / being female are each linked to lower risks of heart disease and stroke is due to HDLs.
The author is seeing both of these causal chains: do aerobic ⇢ higher ⇢ lower risk of exercise HDLs ? and stroke
being ⇢ higher ⇢ lower risk of female HDLs ? and stroke
Goal
We can strengthen this argument by ruling out alternate explanations for why aerobic exercise or being female are associated with lower risk of heart disease and stroke.
Or, we can strengthen by learning anything else that increases the plausibility that HDLs have this beneficial effect. Maybe HDLs are known to refuse to let cholesterol hitchhike its way through the bloodstream.
Let's get rid of four answers that strengthen this causal link (or rule out an alternative explanation).