Logical Reasoning

PT1 · S4 · Q4 State researchers have found that

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State researchers have found that since the oil price increases of the 1970s, there has been a decline in home energy consumption.

Curious Fact

Why has home energy consumption declined, since the 1970s (when oil prices increased)?

Author's Explanation

It's declined because of reduced standards of living (people don't use as much energy as they want to) and changes in the way people spend their time (people do things that require less energy from their homes).

Evaluate

Since we have an asymmetric comparison (people consume less energy in their home now than they did in the 70's) and the conclusion is offering a causal explanation for that comparison, we can use our Explain Curious Fact template.

Goal

The two pressure points on Explain Curious Fact are 1. alternate explanations for the curious fact 2. the plausibility of the author's explanation

Let's eliminate four answers that strengthen. They will do so either by making it more plausible that people use less home energy because of lower standards of living / changes in how they spend time, or by ruling out an alternate explanation for why there's a decline in home energy consumption (i.e. "it's not because climate control has gotten much more efficient with energy use).

Each of the following, if true, would support the conclusion above except:

Sales of portable heaters rose
Strengthens
This increases the plausibility that people changed the way they spend their time. Rather than trying to heat the whole house, they decide to congregate in fewer rooms (this is also a reduced standard of living), so that they can just heat those rooms with portable heaters.
15% picked this
During the winter months, more
Strengthens
This increases the plausibility that people changed the way they spend their time. Rather than trying to heat their house and make it cozy, they increasingly spent their time in libraries, community centers, and other public places. By staying cozy in those warm public places, people didn't need to consume as much home energy keeping their house warm.
4% picked this
Correct
More than 39 percent of
Why this is right
This weakens by providing an Alternate Explanation for why home energy use declined. It wasn't that people reduced their standard of living or changed how they spent time. It was because a large proportion of people improved the efficiency of their existing heating systems, so the heating systems consumed less energy to keep them equally warm.
Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.
70% picked this
At least 59 percent of
Strengthens
This increases the plausibility that people accepted a lower standard of living. They consumed less home energy by getting used to a colder indoor temperature. They didn't run their heaters as long / as strong.
4% picked this
Members of at least 60
Strengthens
This increases the plausibility that people accepted a lower standard of living. They consumed less home energy by getting used to shorter showers, which means they didn't run their water heaters as long.
7% picked this

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