Logical Reasoning

PT6 · S3 · Q19 Amy McConnell is considering running

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Amy McConnell is considering running for election against the incumbent, Gregory Lutz.

Information

conditionals (if, anything = sufficient, Left side)

L has large → L far ahead camp fund + M not run

L not large → M looks at L's record camp fund for scandal fodder

M finds something → M's chances higher scandalous + M will run

M doesn't find → M will not run scandalous

Evaluate

Must Be False questions are famous for contradicting some conditional relationship that's provided. In this paragraph, we got four conditionals. The triggers of the conditionals form two binary pairs.

Lutz either has or doesn't have a large campaign fund, so one of those conditionals will be triggered, and so we know at least one of will occur.

There either will or won't be something of a scandalous nature in L's record, so it will either lead to M running for election or M not running. In this case, the outcomes are contradictory, so it's not "at least one" will occur; it's "exactly one" will occur.

We might want to think through the various scenarios that result in M running or not running.

If L has a big fund, M won't run. If L has a clean record, M won't run. If L doesn't have a big fund and doesn't have a clean record, M will run.

Goal

Let's just look for something that contradicts what we were told. We can anticipate that the correct answer will trigger one of these conditionals but they go against what the outcome of that conditional says.

19.

Given the information in the passage, which one of the following must be false?

  1. Lutz does not have a

    Possible

    If L doesn't have a big fund, then M will search L's record for damaging info. But if L ends up having a clear record, then M will not run. So this is definitely possible.

    8% picked this

  2. Lutz’s record contains items that

    Possible

    In a world where L doesn't have a big fund and doesn't have a clean record, we would find that L's record contains things that would increase M's chance of winning and she would run against him. So this world is possible.

    2% picked this

  3. Lutz’s record contains scandalous items,

    Possible

    If L has a big campaign fund, then M will not run, regardless of whether L has a scandalous record or not. So it's possible that L has a big campaign fund (and a scandalous record) and M doesn't run.

    30% picked this

  4. Correct

    Lutz’s record contains nothing that

    Why this is right

    One of the conditionals said If there's anything of it increases M's a scandalous nature ? chances of winning in Lutz's record So by contrapositive, if there's nothing that would increase M's chances of winning, then there's nothing of a scandalous nature in Lutz's record. If there's nothing of a scandalous nature, then Lutz has a clean record, which guarantees that M will not run against him. This answer is essentially finding a sneaky way of contradicting #2 - If L has a big fund, M won't run. - If L has a clean record, M won't run. - If L doesn't have a big fund and doesn't have a clean record, M will run.

    Skill tested: Must be False · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    58% picked this

  5. Lutz has a large campaign

    Must Be True

    If L has a big fund, then it's a must be true inference that M will not run.

    2% picked this

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