Logical Reasoning

PT142 · S1 · Q14 Currently, no satellite orbiting Earth

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Currently, no satellite orbiting Earth is at significant risk of colliding with other satellites or satellite fragments, but the risk of such a collision is likely to increase dramatically in the future.

Conclusion

The risk of satellites colliding with other satellites or their fragments is likely to increase dramatically in the future.

Evidence (after all)

Once a collision occurs, it will produce thousands of fragments, each capable of shattering other satellites. Those resulting collisions produce more fragments, and soon space will be heavily cluttered with debris.

Evaluate

Whenever we're doing Main Conclusion or Role, we know to listen for upside down arguments, since over 80% of the arguments on these questions involve the Conclusion being followed by evidence.

The most common form is a Pivot / Rebuttal conclusion, and the second most common form is a First Sentence conclusion.

Here, we had a First Sentence conclusion (which came right after the pivot word "but").

As soon as we see the Premise indicator after all, we know that the first sentence is being supported and thus should be the main conclusion.

Goal

We're being asked about the role of the second half of the first sentence, and that was our conclusion! The rest of the paragraph was designed to support that claim.

Look for an answer saying "main conclusion" or something equivalent.

14.

Which one of the following most accurately describes the role played in the argument by the claim that the risk of a satellite orbiting Earth colliding with other satellites or satellite fragments is likely to increase dramatically in the future?

  1. It is an unsupported claim

    Premise

    As soon as we see "unsupported" we should bail. We're looking for "Main Conclusion", which by definition is a supported claim. This is describing our claim as a premise.

    5% picked this

  2. It is an unsupported claim

    Premise

    As soon as we see "unsupported" we should bail. We're looking for "Main Conclusion", which by definition is a supported claim. This is describing our claim as a premise. It's only different from (A) in the sense that (A) described a premise that directly supports the conclusion, and this describes a premise that directly supports an intermediate conclusion (and thus indirectly supports the main conclusion). We just want an answer that says Main Conclusion!

    9% picked this

  3. It is a claim for

    Intermediate Conclusion

    This describes an intermediate conclusion: supported by some part of the argument and supporting the main conclusion. But the claim in question isn't supporting any further claim. This is the main conclusion that everything else is designed to support.

    8% picked this

  4. Correct

    It is a claim that

    Why this is right

    Bingo. The claim that risk will increase dramatically is the main conclusion. "After all..." signals the support that follows, and everything from there until the end is describing the causal chain by which collisions will become increasingly common.

    Skill tested: Role · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    77% picked this

  5. It is a claim that

    Background

    The claim isn't background; it's the main conclusion.

    2% picked this

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