Logical Reasoning

PT140 · S1 · Q23 If the prosecutor wanted

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If the prosecutor wanted to charge Frank with embezzlement, then Frank would already have been indicted.

Conclusion

Frank is not an embezzler

Evidence

If the prosecutor wanted to charge Frank with embezzlement, then Frank would have been indicted. But Frank has not been indicted.

Evaluate

The proper conclusion we can infer from pairing that conditional with the fact that prosecutor didn't indict Frank is that the prosecutor didn't want to indict Frank.

The author's argument is making an illicit leap from "the prosecutor didn't want to indict him" to "he isn't guilty of embezzlement".

Maybe Frank is an old friend of that prosecutor, or Frank works for a mafia kingpin who owns the prosecutor.

Goal

We want to see some sort of conditional premise: If A wanted to do X, then Y.

Then we want a factual premise that triggers the contrapositive. But not Y.

Then we want a conclusion that goes too far. Instead of saying "A doesn't want to do X", it makes a speculative leap about what that means, even though there could be other possible explanations / interpretations.

23.

The flawed pattern of reasoning exhibited by which one of the following is most similar to that exhibited by the argument above?

  1. If Rosita knew that her

    Bad Evidence Match

    The second premise matches the outcome of the conditional, and then infers the trigger of the conditional (i.e. an illegal Reversal). If Rosita knew, she would wait til 10. She waited til 10. So Rosita must have known. We wanted an argument where the second premise contradicts the outcome of the conditional.

    12% picked this

  2. If Barry had won the

    Bad Evidence Match

    The second premise asserts that the trigger idea did not happen, and then infers that the outcome idea will not happen (i.e. an illegal negation). If Barry wins, he'll stay home. Barry did not win. So, Barry will not stay home. We wanted an argument where the second premise asserts that the outcome did not happen.

    7% picked this

  3. Correct

    If Makoto believed that he

    Why this is right

    We get our conditional: If Makoto believed oven on, rush home. We get our fact triggering the contrapositive: Makoto not rush home (still at work) And then the conclusion goes beyond the subjective, correct inference (Makoto doesn't believe oven on) to a speculative takeaway: Thus the oven isn't on.

    Skill tested: Parallel Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    67% picked this

  4. If Tamara believed she was

    Bad Evidence Match

    The second premise matches the outcome of the conditional, and then infers a speculative version of the trigger of the conditional. So while this one does do the speculative leap conclusion, from Tamara's belief to an actual fact, but it doesn't reason through a contrapositive fact. It tries to reason through an illegal Reversal. If Tamara believed promotion, come early. Tamara came early. So Tamara is getting promoted. A matching argument would have looked like, If Tamara believed promotion, Tamara come early. Tamara didn't come early. So Tamara isn't getting promotion.

    9% picked this

  5. If Lucy believed she was

    Bad Evidence / Conclusion Match

    This gives us a conditional: If Lucy believed fired, Lucy not come in. The next ingredient is supposed to be a fact triggering the contrapositive (Lucy did come in). Instead, it's definitive information relating to the left side of the conditional: Lucy is definitely getting fired At this point, there's no way it can match, so we'd give up on it. Tamara came early. So Tamara is getting promoted. A matching argument would have looked like, If Tamara believed promotion, Tamara come early. Tamara didn't come early. So Tamara isn't getting promotion.

    5% picked this

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