Logical Reasoning

PT133 · S1 · Q16 A survey of address changes

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A survey of address changes filed with post offices and driver's license bureaus over the last ten years has established that households moving out of the city of Weston outnumbered households moving into the city two to one.

Evidence

A survey of address changes filed with post offices and driver’s license bureaus over the last ten years has established that households moving out of the city of Weston outnumbered households moving into the city two to one.

Conclusion

Therefore, we can expect that next year’s census, which counts all residents regardless of age, will show that the population of Weston has declined since the last census ten years ago.

Evaluate

The fact that households moving out of Weston outnumber households moving into the city two to one does not guarantee that more people are moving out of Weston than are moving into Weston. If the households moving out do not have many children while the households moving into Weston do, the conclusion would not necessarily follow from the premise.

16.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps strengthen the argument?

  1. Within the past decade many

    Too Weak

    This fails to indicate whether the number of people moving out of Weston is greater or less than the number of people moving in to Weston.

    2% picked this

  2. Over the past century any

    Out of Scope

    This is a descriptive statement about what has happened in the past, which may be nothing like the current changes occurring in Weston. Even if it were assumed that what happened in the past will continue to happen in the future and that the last census in Weston showed a population loss, this would only weaken the argument by suggesting that the next census would should a population gain.

    2% picked this

  3. Many people moving into Weston

    Weaken

    This would make it less likely that next year’s census will show that the population of Weston has declined.

    5% picked this

  4. Correct

    Most adults moving out of

    Why this is right

    This prevents the case described during the evaluation of the argument and makes it more likely that the population of Weston has declined.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    88% picked this

  5. Most people moving out of

    Out of Scope

    The motivation provided by a job to move into or out of Weston has no relevance to whether those adults brought any children (or other family members) along with them.

    3% picked this

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