Logical Reasoning

PT128 · S2 · Q19 Criminologist: According to a countrywide

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Criminologist: According to a countrywide tabulation of all crimes reported to local police departments, the incidence of crime per 100,000 people has risen substantially over the last 20 years.

Background

The reported crime rate (crimes per 100,000 people) has gone up a bunch over the last 20 years, countrywide.

Surprising Claim

A bunch of different surveys of randomly selected citizens finds that people think that the total number of crimes has been lower recently than it was 20 years ago.

Evaluate

Given That the crime rate has been rising Why is it That people think fewer crimes have been committed?

I don't try to do too much predicting on Paradox questions, but a couple things stick out to me:

- the first fact was about Reported crimes, whereas the survey is about actual crimes. Maybe there's a difference between how many crimes get reported and how many crimes people perceive existing.

- the first fact is a crime rate, the second fact is about total number, so it's possible there are fewer crimes but divided by a shrinking population, you'd still get a higher crime rate.

- the second fact is surveys of randomly selected citizens, whereas the first is a countrywide tabulation. It's possible that the mismatch is a geographic accident of where these random surveys were taken (maybe they were taken in lower-crime areas).

Goal

Find a way to reconcile a higher reported crime rate with a survey that shows people feel like there are fewer total crimes.

19.

Which one of the following, if true, would most help to resolve the apparent discrepancy described by the criminologist?

  1. Not all of the citizens

    Too Weak

    Words like "some / not all" (that only provide at least one data point) are almost always wrong on Strengthen, Weaken, and Paradox. We weren't expecting the surveyed people to be victims of crime. Even when crime is increasing, it's unlikely that any given person has been a victim. That wouldn't explain the mismatch between crime data and perception of crime.

    8% picked this

  2. Most crimes committed in the

    Opposite

    If most crimes are reported, then the crime rate should be even higher than it is, which would just exaggerate the mismatch, not explain it.

    4% picked this

  3. The total annual number of

    Contradicts First Fact

    Saying that "total number of crimes has risen" would help to explain why people feel like there are more crimes, but "fallen in proportion to growing population" would contradict the first fact. If total crimes falls in proportion to population, then per capita crime is lower, which is what we mean by crime rate (crimes per 100,000 people).

    26% picked this

  4. In the series of independent

    No Impact

    These seem to be different surveys? Who cares if people misdescribed the crimes they were victims of, if they were crimes either way (as the answer seems to allow for). It won't help us resolve the mismatch between reported crimes and perception of crimes. And the fact that this answer is focused on crime victims, just like (A) was, seems irrelevant.

    2% picked this

  5. Correct

    Of crimes committed in the

    Why this is right

    One of LSAT's favorite tropes is "greater reporting of a crime vs. greater incidence of a crime". Perhaps women today would say that "sexual harassment" is the same or even slightly better than ten years ago, even though the number of reported sexual harassment incidents has gone up, as women feel more emboldened to report these incidents. This explains why the number of reported crimes could go up even if the actual number of crimes (and thus the perception of number of crimes) has gone down.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    59% picked this

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