Logical Reasoning

PT121 · S1 · Q2 Publishing executive: Our company must

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Publishing executive: Our company must sell at least 100,000 books to make a profit this year.

Conclusion

It is unlikely that we will sell at least 100,000 books.

Evidence (since)

Of the twelve titles we sell, the one likely to be our #1 seller is unlikely to sell as many as 100,000 copies.

Evaluate

Given that ... our top prospect is unlikely to sell 100,000 copies How could we argue that ... it is likely that our company will sell at least 100,000 books?

We could say,

The author is thinking

In a sense, it feels like the famous Part vs. Whole flaw. That #1 prospect book is part of this year's suite of books. Since this Part won't sell 100,000 copies, the Whole year's worth of books won't sell 100,000 copies?

Goal

Look for an answer saying that cumulatively the sales of all the books together could still get us over 100,000 copies.

2.

The publishing executive's argument is most vulnerable to criticism because it overlooks the possibility that

  1. the publishing company will sell

    Opposite Direction

    This wouldn't weaken. If the #1 book is going to sell way less than 100,000, that strengthens the idea that the company won't sell 100,000 copies overall.

    1% picked this

  2. the publishing company will not

    Irrelevant Distinction: profit

    The conclusion is only about whether we do or don't sell at least 100,000 copies, not about whether the company does or doesn't make a profit.

    2% picked this

  3. what is true of the

    Irrelevant Distinction: profit

    The conclusion is only about whether we do or don't sell at least 100,000 copies, not about whether the company does or doesn't make a profit. This answer is designed as Whole vs. Part bait. We'd be into this sort of language if it was saying, "what is true of the sales numbers for the best prospect book is not true of overall sales numbers".

    2% picked this

  4. Correct

    what is true of the

    Why this is right

    This describes the famous Part to Whole flaw. What is true of the sales prospects of the publishing company's individual titles - the evidence establishes that what is true of individual titles (each of them will sell fewer than 100,000 copies) is not true of the sales prospects of the group of titles - the group of books together might still be likely to sell more than 100,000 copies

    Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    95% picked this

  5. the publishing company will sell

    Opposite Direction

    By speaking to a scenario where the company sells even fewer books, this answer is going farther away from our goal of arguing that we're going to sell at least 100,000 books.

    0% picked this

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