Logical Reasoning

PT105 · S2 · Q18 In recent years the climate has

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In recent years the climate has been generally cool in northern Asia.

Background

Northern Asia is generally cool, but during hotter / more humid stretches, the yields of crops grown there went up a bunch. Soon, global warming will raise the temperatures in Northern Asia so that it's similar to how it is now during hotter / more humid stretches.

Surprising Claim

Yet scientists predict that yields of most of these crops will decrease in that future world.

Evaluate

Given that short term spikes in temp and humidity seem to lead to higher crop yields, why do scientists think that once the temp and humidity settles into that "spiked level", crop yields will go down?

It seems like could resolve the Paradox one of two ways - it's the temperature jump not the temperature that causes more crop yields (i.e. a spike in temperature has a different effect than prolonged warmer temperatures)

- something else will be different in this future global warming world, so even though the temp / humidity is favorable to bigger yields, some other factor will change that compromises crop yields.

Goal

Look for an answer providing a difference between this world and the warmer world that would harm crop yields, or look for an answer providing a difference between temporary jumps in temp/humidity and permanent increases (that would harm crop yields).

18.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps to resolve the apparent paradox in the information above?

  1. Crop yields in southern Asia

    Out of Scope

    Out of Scope: southern Asia Doesn't Explain After reading this, we still feel confused. It's talking about what's going on somewhere else, but it's not clear what, if anything, it tells us about our situation in Northern Asia. I still have no idea why permanent increases in temp / humidity will have a negative effect on crop yields in the North but no effect on crop yields in the South.

    3% picked this

  2. Any increases in temperature and

    Deepens Paradox

    This is saying that in a warmer, more humid world, there would also be higher levels of CO2, which helps the plant respire. So this is going the opposite direction of what we want our answer to do. We want an answer to explain why crop plants would have it worse in the warmer, more humid world, and this is giving us a reason why crop plants would have it better in that world.

    10% picked this

  3. Correct

    The climate in northern Asia

    Why this is right

    This aloofly provides a factor that could be worse for crop plants in the warmer, more humid world. Since crop pests have been absent because the climate was too cool and dry, it suggests that when the climate gets warmer and wetter, the crop pests will establish themselves. And common sense tells us that more crop pests could lead to decreasing yields.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    63% picked this

  4. In many parts of Asia,

    Deepens Paradox

    We're looking for an answer that explains why a warmer / wetter climate would be bad for crop yields. This sounds like the opposite; it tells us that a warmer / wetter climate would help crop plants flourish.

    3% picked this

  5. The recent climate of northern

    Deepens Paradox

    We're looking for an answer that explains why a warmer / wetter climate would be bad for crop yields. This sounds more like a warmer winter would allow more crops to be farmed (and more crops = more yields).

    21% picked this

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