Because quitting smoking is very stressful and leads to weight gain, it is difficult to do.
Conclusion (implicit recommendation)
The key to quitting smoking may be as simple as replacing an unhealthy activity with a healthy one.
Evidence
It's hard to quit smoking because it's very stressful and leads to weight gain.
In a study of people trying to quit smoking, half were assigned to a smoking-cessation program alone, and half were assigned to the same program plus fifteen weeks of aerobic exercise.
After one month, no one in the first group had quit but 40% of the second group had not smoked.
Evaluate
The conclusion is hard to find and being pretty coy about what it's saying. What are they referring to with "replacing an unhealthy activity with a healthy one"?
Well, in the study, people were trying to quit their unhealthy smoking, and people who were in the group that did some aerobic exercise had more success ceasing their smoking.
So the conclusion is saying, .
Since the argument is presenting a Study, we'd anticipate that the author is going to make some sort of causal assumption about the study's findings, and so we can use our Explain Curious Fact mindset.
Curious Fact ... why did a bigger share of the group that was assigned "program + aerobics" quit smoking, compared to the group that was just assigned "program"?
Author's Explanation ... the aerobics helped them quit smoking.
Goal
We know we can strengthen an Explain Curious Fact argument two ways:
1. rule out an Alternate Explanation for why the group that did aerobics fared better
2. add to the plausibility that the aerobic exercise helped people in that group quit
But since our conclusion also goes broader than simply "aerobic exercise helps you quit smoking" and says , we could also strengthen the argument by providing other examples of healthy activities helping someone quit an unhealthy activity.