An editorial in the Grandburg Daily

Answer choices

1. A

   Bad Conclusion Match7% picked this

   The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will

   This doesn't help us get from "they expect X to lose" to "they welcome the idea of X losing". The way these surveyed voters feel about a political party, according to our evidence, is that they "feel like party X will be out of power". According to this answer, they will continue to feel like party X will be out of power. But this still has nothing to do with whether they welcome that notion or just begrudgingly accept that notion.

   7%
2. B

   Bad Conclusion Match18% picked this

   The results of surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims

   This answer is only about the results of the election, whereas the conclusion is about how voters would feel about the results of the election. If voter surveys are a sturdy basis for making predictions, then [this answer + the survey] would allow us to predict that Party X really will be out of power after next year's elections. But this isn't addressing the conclusion at all --- do the voters surveyed actually welcome that idea, or are they just predicting it will be true even though they're unhappy that it will probably be true?

   18%
3. C

   Bad Premise Match4% picked this

   An increase in ill-feeling toward a political party that is in power can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding increase

   We weren't told in the evidence that there was any increase in ill-feeling towards Party X, so we have no way to use this answer choice for the situation we heard about. "An increase in ill-feeling" ? we predict bad things will happen for this party

   4%
4. D

   Correct63% picked this

   The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who

   Why this is right

   We were shopping for an answer that would get us FROM "we predict party X will lose" TO "we welcome the idea of party X losing" This answer gives us that linking idea. According to this answer choice, If 57% expect party X to lose, then approximately 57% are in favor of party X losing.

   Skill tested: Principle-Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   63%
5. E

   No Impact8% picked this

   It can reasonably be assumed that registered voters who respond to a survey regarding the outcome of a future election will exercise their

   Since we have no idea whether the people surveyed are planning to vote for or against Party X, being told that they do indeed plan to vote doesn't mean anything to us. The fact that people in this survey were predicting a loss for Party X doesn't mean that they were rooting for a loss or planning to contribute to a loss by voting against Party X.

   8%