Logical Reasoning

PT21 · S3 · Q17 An editorial in the Grandburg Daily

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An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg’s voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council.

Conclusion

G's voters would generally welcome the defeat of the incumbent political party controlling G's City Council.

Evidence

59% of those surveyed said they think this incumbent party will be out of power after next year's city council elections.

Evaluate

Whoa, pretty big shift there. The survey was asking, A majority of people said not the incumbents.

The conclusion is talking about, "Whom do you want to be in power?" and acting like a majority of people said not the incumbents.

I might think that Democrats will be out of power after the 2024 election, even if do not welcome that idea.

Goal

Since our job here is to strengthen the move from evidence to conclusion, we're going to need to get an answer that helps get us

From .... To ....

they expect party X they want party X to be out of power out of power

17.

Which one of the following is a principle that, if established, would provide the strongest justification for the editorial’s conclusion?

  1. The way voters feel about

    Bad Conclusion Match

    This doesn't help us get from "they expect X to lose" to "they welcome the idea of X losing". The way these surveyed voters feel about a political party, according to our evidence, is that they "feel like party X will be out of power". According to this answer, they will continue to feel like party X will be out of power. But this still has nothing to do with whether they welcome that notion or just begrudgingly accept that notion.

    7% picked this

  2. The results of surveys that

    Bad Conclusion Match

    This answer is only about the results of the election, whereas the conclusion is about how voters would feel about the results of the election. If voter surveys are a sturdy basis for making predictions, then [this answer + the survey] would allow us to predict that Party X really will be out of power after next year's elections. But this isn't addressing the conclusion at all --- do the voters surveyed actually welcome that idea, or are they just predicting it will be true even though they're unhappy that it will probably be true?

    18% picked this

  3. An increase in ill-feeling toward

    Bad Premise Match

    We weren't told in the evidence that there was any increase in ill-feeling towards Party X, so we have no way to use this answer choice for the situation we heard about. "An increase in ill-feeling" ? we predict bad things will happen for this party

    4% picked this

  4. Correct

    The proportion of voters who

    Why this is right

    We were shopping for an answer that would get us FROM "we predict party X will lose" TO "we welcome the idea of party X losing" This answer gives us that linking idea. According to this answer choice, If 57% expect party X to lose, then approximately 57% are in favor of party X losing.

    Skill tested: Principle-Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    64% picked this

  5. It can reasonably be assumed

    No Impact

    Since we have no idea whether the people surveyed are planning to vote for or against Party X, being told that they do indeed plan to vote doesn't mean anything to us. The fact that people in this survey were predicting a loss for Party X doesn't mean that they were rooting for a loss or planning to contribute to a loss by voting against Party X.

    8% picked this

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