Logical ReasoningDifficulty: Easy

PT2 S2 Q14 Explanation

The “suicide wave” that followed

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Stimulus

The “suicide wave” that followed the United States stock market crash of October 1929 is more legend than fact. Careful examination of the monthly figures on the causes of death in 1929 shows that the number of suicides in October and in November was comparatively low. In only three other months were stock market was flourishing, the number of suicides was substantially higher.

What this question is testing

Weaken

Conclusion

The author wants to debunk the idea that the 1929 crash caused a wave of suicides.

Evidence

The proof: in 1929, October and November had relatively few suicides compared to the summer of that same year.

Evaluate

The trick is in the comparison. The author is checking October–November against the rest of 1929. But suicide rates are not uniform across the calendar — some months are typically higher or lower. To test whether the crash made things worse, we need to compare October–November 1929 to October–November in other years.

Think of a heat wave. Suppose someone says, That misses the point. To test for a January heat wave, you need to compare that January to other Januaries, not to a summer month.

Same problem here. If October and November are normally low-suicide months, then 1929's October and November could be much higher than a typical October and November while still being lower than 1929's summer. The within-year comparison hides what we actually care about.

Goal

Find the answer that compares October–November 1929 to October–November in other years.

Reading along? Open the full official question in LawHub — we show a fragment here and keep the reasoning in our own words.

The question
14.

Which one of the following, if true, would best challenge the conclusion

Answer choices

  1. No Impact4% picked this

    The suicide rate is influenced by many psychological, interpersonal, and societal factors during any

    The general claim that suicide rates depend on many factors is true but unspecific. It does not tell us whether October–November 1929 specifically were unusually high or low compared to a relevant baseline. It leaves the argument's actual numerical comparison unchallenged.

  2. Opposite7% picked this

    October and November have almost always had relatively high suicide rates, even during the

    If October and November typically have relatively high suicide rates, that helps the author. The author argued these months were comparatively low in 1929 — well, if they are normally high but were not high in 1929, that is even stronger evidence the crash did not cause a wave. This goes the wrong way.

  3. Correct85% picked this

    The suicide rate in October and November of 1929 was considerably higher than the average for those months during

    Why this is right

    This is exactly the comparison the argument needs but failed to make. October–November 1929 were "considerably higher" than the average for the same months in surrounding years. So even if those months were lower than the summer of 1929 (the author's point), they were elevated relative to their own historical baseline — which is what a crash effect would look like. The argument's within-year comparison missed this.

    Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

  4. No Impact2% picked this

    During the years surrounding the stock market crash, suicide rates were typically lower at the beginning of any calendar year than toward

    This says suicide rates were typically lower at the start of the year than the end. That tells us something about general seasonality but does not tell us how October–November 1929 compared to October–November in other years. The author's argument hinges on the correct baseline comparison, and this answer does not provide it.

  5. No Impact3% picked this

    Because of seasonal differences, the number of suicides in October and November of 1929 would not be expected to be the same

    This says October and November 1929 should not be expected to match other 1929 months because of seasonal differences. That actually agrees with our critique of the author's within-year comparison — but it stops short of saying anything about the right comparison (across years). It does not show October–November 1929 were elevated; it just says comparing them to summer is unfair. The argument can survive this because it would still be possible that even on the right comparison, October–November 1929 were normal or low.

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