Logical Reasoning

PT2 · S2 · Q14 The “suicide wave” that followed

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The “suicide wave” that followed the United States stock market crash of October 1929 is more legend than fact.

Conclusion

The "suicide wave" that supposedly followed the 1929 stock market crash is more legend than fact.

Evidence

October and November 1929 had comparatively low monthly suicide totals — only three other months were lower. The summer months, when the market was flourishing, had substantially higher monthly counts.

Evaluate

The argument compares October–November 1929 only to other months within 1929. But suicide rates have a seasonal pattern, and what matters for testing a "crash effect" is whether October–November 1929 were unusual compared to October–November in other years. Within-year comparisons can be misleading if some months are normally higher than others.

Goal

The correct answer should compare October–November 1929 to October–November in other years, showing they were unusually high relative to that historical baseline.

14.

Which one of the following, if true, would best challenge the conclusion of the passage?

The suicide rate is influenced
No Impact
The general claim that suicide rates depend on many factors is true but unspecific. It does not tell us whether October–November 1929 specifically were unusually high or low compared to a relevant baseline. It leaves the argument's actual numerical comparison unchallenged.
4% picked this
October and November have almost
Opposite
If October and November typically have relatively high suicide rates, that helps the author. The author argued these months were comparatively low in 1929 — well, if they are normally high but were not high in 1929, that is even stronger evidence the crash did not cause a wave. This goes the wrong way.
7% picked this
Correct
The suicide rate in October
Why this is right
This is exactly the comparison the argument needs but failed to make. October–November 1929 were "considerably higher" than the average for the same months in surrounding years. So even if those months were lower than the summer of 1929 (the author's point), they were elevated relative to their own historical baseline — which is what a crash effect would look like. The argument's within-year comparison missed this.
Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.
85% picked this
During the years surrounding the
No Impact
This says suicide rates were typically lower at the start of the year than the end. That tells us something about general seasonality but does not tell us how October–November 1929 compared to October–November in other years. The author's argument hinges on the correct baseline comparison, and this answer does not provide it.
2% picked this
Because of seasonal differences, the
No Impact
This says October and November 1929 should not be expected to match other 1929 months because of seasonal differences. That actually agrees with our critique of the author's within-year comparison — but it stops short of saying anything about the right comparison (across years). It does not show October–November 1929 were elevated; it just says comparing them to summer is unfair. The argument can survive this because it would still be possible that even on the right comparison, October–November 1929 were normal or low.
3% picked this

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