Logical Reasoning

PT157 · S3 · Q1 Over the long run, apple orchards

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Over the long run, apple orchards that use organic farming methods cost no more to run than, and are just as productive as, apple orchards using conventional methods.

Conclusion (thus)

Organic orchards are likely to be more profitable than conventional orchards in the long run.

Evidence

Over the long run, apple orchards that use organic farming methods cost no more to run than, and are just as productive as, apple orchards using conventional methods.

Organically grown apples tend to be better tasting.

Evaluate

Profit, of course, is based on Revenue - Expenses.

The evidence is establishing that organic orchards are similar when it comes to Expenses (it costs no more to run).

So then for organic orchards to be more profitable, they would have to be bringing in more Revenue.

It sounds like the actual productivity, the crop yield, the number of apples grown is comparable. So in order to get more revenue, they'd have to sell a higher % of the apples they grow or they'd have to price their apples higher (so that a comparable number of apples sold brings in more revenue).

The one thing we know about organic apples is that they're better tasting.

Goal

Let's look for an answer helping us believe that organic orchards bring in more revenue, possibly because their apples taste better or they sell a higher % of the apples they grow or they can sell their apples at a higher price.

1.

Which one of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?

  1. The use of organic farming

    Out of Scope

    This tells us that organic farming is happening more and more with apples, but we don't know whether that's because it's more profitable. An increased use of organic farming methods does not establish that organic orchards are more profitable. There could be many reasons for the trend — environmental concerns, government subsidies, consumer pressure — none of which necessarily connect to profitability.

    5% picked this

  2. The apple orchards that tend

    Out of Scope

    This answer introduces an irrelevant comparison between short-term and long-term profitability. We want to be able to compare organic orchards to non-organic orchards.

    3% picked this

  3. Correct

    Demand for a given kind

    Why this is right

    The fact that organic apples are better tasting is synonymous with the idea that they have better flavor. If better flavor usually means higher demand, then we have strong reason to expect that organic apples will sell better. There's a common sense connection between higher demand for a product and higher sales of that product. The higher sales would give us More Revenue than the non-organic orchards, helping to support the conclusion that organic orchards would be more profitable.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    91% picked this

  4. Most people prefer to buy

    Out of Scope

    One of the ways we thought we could support the idea that organic apples result in more revenue is that "they are sold for a higher retail price". This answer would undermine the idea that people are buying higher-priced organic apples. Ultimately, the answer has unclear impact because we didn't get any information about the price of organic vs. non-organic apples, so we don't know how to apply this fact to that comparison.

    0% picked this

  5. Many consumers prefer the appearance

    Out of Scope

    This directly undermines the conclusion. If consumers prefer the appearance of conventional apples, they're more likely to buy conventional than organic. That weakens the idea that organic orchards will be more profitable.

    0% picked this

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