Trainer: An athlete developed lower back pain after a strenuous athletic competition.
Conclusion
Using a heating pad is generally more effective at relieving lower back pain than stretching is.
Evidence
An athlete injured her lower back after a strenuous competition. She tried stretching for a few days but the pain persisted. She then used a heating pad, and within a few days the pain was gone.
Evaluate
Since part of this argument involves a Causal Interpretation of a before/after, we can use our Curious Fact / Explanation mindset.
Curious Fact Why did the pain not go away after several days of stretching but did go away a few days after using a heating pad?
Author's Story Stretching isn't as good at relieving lower back pain, whereas the heating pad is more effective and so that's why the stretching didn't relieve the pain but the heating pad did.
When Curious Fact and Flaw intersect, we're just supposed to be pointing out that the author is too sure of his explanation. It's possible that stretching didn't work and the heating pad did, but aren't there other possible ways to interpret that data?
- maybe stretching works, but it takes a few days before it the effects can be seen - maybe the pain just went away on its own, and the heating pad was just a coincidence
The other aspect of this argument that could be critiqued is that the conclusion gets way more broad than just the case of the athlete. It says that heating pads are generally more effective.
Now we have Sampling concerns --- maybe what happened with this athlete was not typical or general. Maybe the type or severity of the injury she suffered isn't typical. Maybe her body's response to stretching vs. heating pad is atypical.
Goal
Get rid of four valid complaints with the argument. They will probably be a mix of alternate explanations for why the pain ultimately disappeared and possible objections to the sampling generalization that's made.