Logical Reasoning

PT146 · S1 · Q16 In most of this forest, the expected

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In most of this forest, the expected outbreak of tree-eating tussock moths should not be countered.

Evidence

In areas of this forest where suppression of forest fires has left the forest unnaturally crowded with immature trees, the tree-eating tussock moth is beneficial.

Conclusion

Thus, in most of this forest, the outbreak of tree-eating tussock moth should be allowed.

Evaluate

After all, _______ ??

We know the tree-eating TM is beneficial in areas where a no-forest-fire policy has led to lots of immature trees being alive. (Usually forest fires kill off the brush and small trees on the forest floor, whereas older/thicker/taller trees often survive)

So I guess we need to know that in most of this forest, we've been suppressing fires and now have lots of immature trees filling up the joint.

Goal

Most of this forest is unnaturally crowded with immature trees?

16.

The conclusion of the argument is most strongly supported if which one of the following completes the passage?

  1. Correct

    more than half of the

    Why this is right

    "More than half of the forest" matches up with "most of this forest" from the conclusion. "Unnaturally crowded with immature trees" is the environment in which we're told the tree-eating TM is beneficial. So this helps us support the idea that in most of the forest, we should allow the tree-eating TM to do its thang.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    65% picked this

  2. mature trees are usually the

    Goes Against Gist

    If they tell us that a tree-eating species of moth is beneficial in an area that is unnaturally crowded with immature trees, then presumably this moth species helps us out by eating the immature trees down to a normal level.

    16% picked this

  3. usually a higher proportion of

    Goes Against Gist

    If suppression of forest fires results in an unnatural crowding of immature trees, it sounds like non-suppression of forest fires (i.e. allowing forest fires to happen) would result in less crowding of immature trees. So it sounds like forest fires have the usual effect of shrinking the immature tree population. We don't know officially whether it's a higher/lower proportion of immature than mature trees dying in a forest fire. But since the information only stressed the fact that the immature trees are dying in a forest fire, it would be going against the grain to pick an answer saying that mature trees are the ones more affected.

    14% picked this

  4. the expected outbreak of tussock

    Doesn't Strengthen

    We shouldn't counter the outbreak -- why? Because if don't counter it, it's almost certain to happen. Okay ... but why do we want it to happen? There is a hint at why -- maybe we want it to happen because we need to get rid of a lot of unusual crowding of immature trees, but this answer isn't providing any reason why. Think about how unpersuasive this would sound as a strengthener, if you applied to something you had a negative opinion of: We shouldn't counter the expected sinking of this ship, because the ship will almost certainly sink if no attempt is made to avert the sinking. Without knowing whether the outbreak is a good or bad thing, helping its inevitability along might be great, might be awful.

    4% picked this

  5. there are no completely effective

    Too Weak

    It's not much of a strengthener to say "we shouldn't try to counter the outbreak, because there are no 100% effective countermeasures." Consider how ridiculous that would sound if you were saying, "we shouldn't try to counter COVID-19, because there are no 100% effective countermeasures". Okay, we'll I'll take something that's 90% effective! Our author isn't saying we should avoid trying to stop the moth in most of the forest because our moth-beating options are flawed; it's because the moth can be beneficial in a certain type of context.

    1% picked this

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