Logical Reasoning

PT144 · S2 · Q18 An article claims that many medical

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An article claims that many medical patients have an instinctual ability to predict sudden changes in their medical status.

Conclusion

We shouldn't trust the idea that many medical patients have an instinctual ability to predict sudden changes in their medical status.

Evidence

The evidence is anecdotal and analogous to empirically disproven reports that babies are more likely to be born on nights with full moons.

Once the rumor got out that "full moons bring out da babies", maternity room staff became more likely to remember busy nights with full moons than busy nights without full moons.

Evaluate

This is a tough argument to grasp. It's about whether medical patients have an instinctual ability to predict sudden changes in their medical status, but the evidence is all about babies and full moons.

Since this argument relies on an analogy, the author has to assume that the two cases are relevantly similar.

What parts of analogy are important?

The full moon thing is an example of a false claim (more babies are born on full moons) that was believed because of selective memory.

Once maternity room staff had the thought of "more babies are born on full moons", there was a confirmation bias happening -- they would be extra likely to remember full moon nights with lots of babies.

Since our author's argument is saying, , the author must be assuming that people got this idea in their heads and then confirmation bias led to selective memory where they're more likely to remember times when patients did predict sudden changes than they are to remember times when patients didn't.

Goal

Hard to predict the right wording, but look for an assumption connecting a relevant similarity between the evidence about "full moon babies" and the conclusion about "clairvoyant patients".

18.

The argument requires the assumption that

  1. the article claiming that medical

    Too Strong: soon disproven

    This is tempting, but the author doesn't specifically need this similarity to line up. The author is definitely assuming that in both cases "the claim" is not legit. In the case of "full moon babies" is was empirically disproven. In the case of "clairvoyant patients" it may one day be empirically disproven, but it doesn't matter to the author whether that happens soon or not.

    20% picked this

  2. Correct

    patients' predictions of sudden changes

    Why this is right

    This is a relevant similarity, selective memory. The author thinks that what gave credence to the false idea of "full moon baby explosions" was the selective memory that maternity room staff had --- they were more likely to remember busy baby nights that conformed to the full moon legend than to remember busy baby nights that deviated. So, similarly, the author is thinking that what gives credence to the false idea of "patients can predict what's going to happen to them" is selective memory on the part of the medical staff -- they are more likely to remember times when patients did accurately predict a change in status, and less likely to remember when patients didn't. If we negated this, it would break down what the author thinks is the crucial similarity between the two analogous cases. That said, this answer and this problem are frustratingly loose. I would not consider every part of this answer choice necessary. The selective memory definitely doesn't have to be on the part of medical staff. The legend could have started with other people's selective memory.

    Skill tested: Necessary Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    59% picked this

  3. the patients in the article

    Trap

    Opposite, if anything Out of Scope: not serious The author doesn't give any indication that she's thinking of the patients being facetious. It seems like she thinks in the case of the "full moon babies" and the "clairvoyant patients", every one is acting earnestly and just being fooled by confirmation bias and selective memory.

    2% picked this

  4. babies are less likely to

    Too Strong: less likely

    The author is saying that "babies are not more likely to be born on a full moon", but that doesn't mean the author is saying that "babies are less likely to be born on full moon nights". The author probably thinks that babies are just as likely to be born on any phase of the moon's night.

    10% picked this

  5. the idea that medical patients

    Opposite, if anything

    If the "full moon babies" and "clairvoyant patients" were completely analogous cases, then in both cases there would be a popular rumor / a widely held belief that influenced people into having selective memory / confirmation bias.

    10% picked this

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