Logical Reasoning

PT144 · S2 · Q16 When surveyed about which party

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When surveyed about which party they would like to see in the legislature, 40 percent of respondents said Conservative, 20 percent said Moderate, and 40 percent said Liberal.

Conclusion

Assuming the survey is reliable, most citizens want the legislature to be about 40% Conservative, 20% Moderate, and 40% Liberal.

Evidence

In the survey, 40% said they'd like to see the conservative party in the legislature, 20% said the moderate party, 40% said the liberal party.

Evaluate

The author seems to be totally misunderstanding the survey results.

40% of people surveyed were saying, . In other words, I wish the legislature were 100% conservative (or at least, I wish it was mainly conservative).

There was probably no one in this survey who actually said, "I'd like to see a 40/20/40 split", so how could the author possibly think that most citizens want a 40/20/40 split?

Goal

Look for an answer objecting to the author's total misread of this survey was measuring.

40% of people want it 100% conservative. 20% of people want it 100% moderate. 40% of people want it 100% liberal.

0% are asking for it to be 40/20/40%.

16.

Which one of the following most accurately describes a flaw in the reasoning of the argument?

The argument uses premises about
Not Actual vs. Desirable
Because this answer says, "The argument uses premises about X to draw a conclusion about Y", we can just ask ourselves if X matches the evidence and Y the conclusion. Do the premises discuss the actual state of affairs? Kind of. Not a great match, but the actual survey results were 40/20/40. Does the conclusion talk about how things should be? Not at all. Definitely eliminate because of that mismatch.
3% picked this
The argument draws a conclusion
Not Circular
This is not the famous circular reasoning flaw. The conclusion is saying, "most citizens want a legislature that is 40/20/40, Conservative/Moderate/Liberal". The evidence involves the results of a survey addressing the question, "which party would you like to see in the legislature". Those are distinct claims, not restatements of each other.
11% picked this
Correct
The argument takes for granted
Why this is right
Since the answer says, "the argument takes for granted that X is Y", we can ask ourselves whether X matches the evidence and Y the conclusion. Was the evidence talking about the preferences of a group as a whole? Sure if we were to say, "as a whole, the group of people surveyed, had preferences of 40% con, 20% mod, 40% lib." Does the conclusion talk about the preferences of most individual members of the group? Yes, although this gets complicated. The conclusion is saying that most citizens have a preference for 40% con, 20% mod, 40% lib. But the group the evidence was talking about was the surveyed group. This conclusion is talking about a different group — citizens in general. The reason we can equate those is because the author predicates this conclusion on the assumption that "the survey results are reliable", which means we can extrapolate from the results of the survey to the population at large that it represents. So the author sees that the group of survey respondents voted 40/20/40. Then she assumes that most individual survey respondents had a 40/20/40 preference. Then she stipulates that "if these results are reliable, then most citizens have a 40/20/40 preference."
Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.
70% picked this
The argument fails to consider
Doesn't Fail to Consider
The fact that the author stipulates, "if the survey results are reliable" means that she is considering that the survey results might not be reliable, for such reasons as bias on behalf of the researchers.
2% picked this
The argument uses evidence that
Not Rough vs. Precise
This is tempting, as the only other answer that sounds like it's saying, "Hey, author, you badly misinterpreted what that survey was saying." But our complaint isn't that the survey was only giving a fuzzy estimate and the author's conclusion is precisely quantified. Our objection is that "How did you possibly get the idea that most people want a legislature that is 40/20/40? Did anyone in the survey say that? That's not even a possible answer, given the survey's question — which party would you like to see in the legislature?" This answer is acting like the author was basically right, just over-precise. We're objecting that the author is nowhere close to being right. It's a total misunderstanding of what the survey was even measuring.
14% picked this

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