Logical Reasoning

PT143 · S4 · Q14 The number of automobile thefts

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The number of automobile thefts has declined steadily during the past five years, and it is more likely now than it was five years ago that someone who steals a car will be convicted of the crime.

Facts

Over the last 5 years, - Number of car thefts has steadily declined - Likelihood of being convicted for car theft (if you steal a car) has gone up

Evaluation

What could explain both of these? It sounds like the 2nd could explain the 1st. If you a car thief and you see that more and more car thieves are being convicted of crimes, that could serve as a deterrent, leading to fewer cars being stolen.

But we would still need a causal reason for why the % of car thefts that lead to convictions has gone up. Better policework? Better evidence collected? More traceable cars? Better prosecution? Sloppier criminals?

14.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps to explain the facts cited above?

Correct
Although there are fewer car
Why this is right
Fewer car thieves helps to explain fewer car thefts. The second fact helps to explain why a higher proportion of car thieves are being caught/convicted. If, previously, car thieves abandoned a car they stole before the owner even noticed it was gone, then it's hard for the cops to catch the thief red handed. Nowadays, car thieves are still in possession of the car when the owner notices the car is missing and contacts the police. Thus, it's more likely that when the cops find the stolen car, the thief is still there.
Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.
75% picked this
Car alarms are more common
Trap
Weak Impact For 1st No Impact For 2nd More car alarms would help explain fewer car thefts, since when the alarm goes off the potential thief is likely to run away. But if thieves know that people generally ignore the car alarms, then they actually might not run away. Not only does this undercut its own ability to explain the 1st fact, it offers no reason for the 2nd fact, why a higher % of thieves get convicted.
5% picked this
An upsurge in home burglaries
Opposite
This is saying that there is less police presence nowadays when it comes to car thefts (since they've been diverted to home thefts), so this would make us expect more car thefts and fewer convictions.
4% picked this
Because of the increasingly lucrative
Trap
Opposite Impact For 1st No Impact For 2nd Since the stolen car market is increasingly lucrative, this offers a reason for more car thefts to be taking place. It also seems to have no bearing on the % of thieves who would get convicted.
4% picked this
There are more adolescent car
Opposite For 1st Weak For 2nd
If there are more younger thieves, we'd expect that to mean more car thefts, so this is opposite of what we want. This does probably help us argue, though, why there would be a higher rate of convictions. Adolescents would be more inexperienced criminals so they'd be more likely to get caught / convicted than career thieves.
12% picked this

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