Climatologist: Over the coming century (copy)

Answer choices

1. A

   Weakens12% picked this

   Global warming will probably cause a substantial increase in the average amount of annual precipitation in the Rocky

   If there is a lot more precipitation, then even though a smaller proportion falls as snow, there still might be just as much snow as before. i.e. maybe the precipitation used to be 50% snow, 50% rain, and global warming will change that to be 40% snow, 60% rain, but 40% of a bigger number can still be at least as big as 50% of a smaller number.

   12%
2. B

   Correct52% picked this

   In other mountainous regions after relatively mild winters, the melting of snowpacks has led to greater spring flooding and less storable water, on average,

   Why this is right

   This is a "More Cause, More Effect" plausibility strengthener for the author's prediction. It provides data points showing that in other areas, the supposed cause (warming temps in a mountainous region) led to some of the predicted effects (the melting caused greater spring flooding and less storable water). This doesn't address the "melting more rapidly / earlier" part of the prediction, but a Strengthen answer doesn't have to be perfect. It just has to beat the other answers.

   Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   52%
3. C

   Too Weak26% picked this

   On average, in areas of the Rocky Mountains in which winters are relatively mild, there is less storable water to meet summer demands than

   This answer ends up going head-to-head with (B), for a lot of us. It also has the feel of More Cause / More Effect data points: It's associating the supposed cause (relatively mild winters) with some of the predicted effect (less storable water). But it's just not as strong a strengthener as (B). They both deal with the concept of milder vs. colder winters. (B) deals with entire mountainous regions changing from colder to milder. (C) deals with individual patches within a mountainous regions being colder vs. milder. (B) wins that battle, since the author's argument is about an entire mountain region changing from one climate to another. (B)'s match for the predicted effects is "melting snowpack led to more spring flooding and less storable water" (C)'s match for the predicted effects is just "less storable water". So (B) wins that battle too, since it deals with spring flooding and since it deals with the causal idea that melting snowpack led to these changes.

   26%
4. D

   Too Weak6% picked this

   On average, in the regions of the world with the mildest winters, there is more spring flooding and less storable water than in regions

   Like (B) and (C), this answer has some elements of More Cause / More Effect data points. But this answer deals with outliers (regions with the mildest winters) rather than a change (regions that went from colder to milder winters). And this answer doesn't include any of the causal connection between melting snowpacks and more flooding / less storable water.

   6%
5. E

   Weakens4% picked this

   The larger a mountain snowpack is, the greater the amount of spring flooding it is likely to

   The author's story actually involves a smaller snowpack (since a shrinking % of precipitation ends up being snow) leading to greater spring flooding. So this answer would Weaken the argument.

   4%