Logical Reasoning

PT14 · S4 · Q22 “This company will not be training

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“This company will not be training any more pilots in the foreseeable future, since we have 400 trained pilots on our waiting list who are seeking employment.

Conclusion

There will be no shortage of personnel despite the current upswing in the aviation industry.

Evidence (since)

This company will not be training any more pilots in the foreseeable future.

We have 400 trained pilots on our waiting list who are seeking employment.

The other five major companies each have roughly the same number of trained pilots on their waiting lists.

The projected requirement of each company is for not many more than 100 additional pilots.

Evaluate

GIVEN THAT all six major companies have about 400 trained pilots on their waiting list, and each company will probably only need about 100 pilots

HOW COULD WE ARGUE THAT there will be a shortage of pilots as the aviation industry expands?

The evidence makes it seem like we have about 2400 trained pilots and will only need about 600.

So we'd either need a way to argue there aren't really 2400 trained pilots eligible for these 600 positions, or we'll need to argue there will end up being way more than 600 positions to fill.

Goal

Let's find an answer that indicates the current assumption about having enough pilots might not hold in future situations, either due to incorrect counting or unforeseen demands.

22.

Which one of the following, if true, casts the most doubt on the accuracy of the above conclusion?

Correct
Most of the trained pilots
Why this is right
If we had 400 pilots looking for a job, and they submitted their resume to Southwest, American, Delta, United, Jet Blue, and Spirit, then all six airlines would have 400 pilots on their waiting list. But there would only be 400 pilots in total! So if each airline needed 100 pilots, that's 600 pilots we need and only 400 we have. Thus we WOULD have a shortage of pilots. This answer is taking us in that direction. The more overlap there is between the pilots on the waiting list, the fewer pilots we actually have (we might have closer to 400 pilots, as opposed to the 2400 pilots we'd have if there were no overlap between waiting lists).
Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.
79% picked this
In the long run, pilot
No Impact
This seems to go against the very first claim, where they say there won't be pilot training for the foreseeable future. But it's not really going against that claim, because "in the long run" is farther out than the foreseeable future. Humans aren't going extinct in the foreseeable future, but in the long run, humans are going extinct. We're not supposed to be attacking this claim, to begin with. We're supposed to be attacking the idea that there won't be a pilot shortage, and this answer doesn't really have anything to do with whether we have enough pilots applicants to fill the upcoming pilot positions.
3% picked this
If no new pilots are
No Impact
The conclusion concerns quantity, not workforce diversity or balance. Age imbalance doesn't necessarily imply a personnel shortage.
7% picked this
The quoted personnel projections take
Opposite (if anything)
This makes it hard for us to argue that the projection of "not too many more than 100 per company" is way too low and that in reality there will be much higher demand for pilots. So since it undermines a potential line of objection, it kinda strengthens.
5% picked this
Some of the other major
Opposite (if anything)
The fact that at least one company is still training pilots doesn't give us much to work with, in terms of judging whether there will be a shortage of pilots. If anything, the fact that some companies are still training pilots speaks to a higher supply of pilots ready to go, which makes it harder to argue that there will be a shortage.
6% picked this

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