Acme's move to Ocean View will not be accompanied by a significant pay raise
Why this is right
This answer comes from a surprising angle, so we better be aware that on Necessary Assumption, it's super lovable to see an answer ruling-out an idea with the word "not". We stop and negate these, because they're so frequently correct and because they are usually offering an idea we didn't necessarily predict. The negation here says, "ACME's move to Ocean View will be accompanied by a significant pay raise for Acme employees". Does that hurt the argument? Does that help us argue that most Acme employees will have a commute of less than 30 minutes? Yeah, that weakens somewhat. The author was saying that most Acme employees can't afford housing within a 30 minute commute. They can't currently afford housing near Ocean View. But if the company is giving the employees a huge pay raise, knowing that the cost of living is so much higher in Ocean View, then once the company has moved, these employees may have changed from people who cannot afford to live near Ocean View into people who can afford to live near there. Weakening arguments based on Predictions often involves pointing out that "something else will be different in that Future World, author, and that changing factor might mess up your conclusion". Overall, this is an unusual answer because the negation weakens to a decent degree, but not to the usual strong degree that we expect when we negate the correct answer. Still, if we go by the standard of, "Which answer, when negated, most weakens", we'll never pick the wrong answer on Necessary Assumption.
Skill tested: Necessary Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.