Logical Reasoning

PT135 · S2 · Q24 Books that present a utopian

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Books that present a utopian future in which the inequities and sufferings of the present are replaced by more harmonious and rational social arrangements will always find enthusiastic buyers.

Conclusion

Gloomy books predicting end times are unlikely to be popular.

Evidence

Books that present a vision of a happy future are always popular, and gloomy books predicting end times are not in that genre.

Evaluation

Lots of Parallel Flaw questions test famous flaws, and this one is giving us the Necessary vs. Sufficient flaw. It helps us to spot that if we notice the conditional certainty of “will always”. The author’s logic is basically,

Goal

If A, then B. Since this thing is not-A, it will be not-B.

24.

The questionable pattern of reasoning in which one of the following arguments is most similar to that in the argument above?

  1. Art that portrays people as

    Bad Premise Match / Weak Conclusion Match

    We do have a conditional: If [art that portrays happy people], then [appealingly tranquilizing to some]. But, in order to match, we would need a premise that sounds like, “This art does not portray happy people, thus it won’t be appealingly tranquilizing.” Also, the conclusion says (X’s are not Y or Z), but the original conclusion was more weakly worded (X’s are unlikely to be Y).

    5% picked this

  2. People who enjoy participating in

    Bad Conclusion Match / Bad Premise Match

    This one can be quickly eliminated if we glance at the conclusion and see that it’s a different type of claim (You can’t infer X from Y) than the conclusion of the original argument (X’s are unlikely to be Y). It also only contains one premise, whereas the original had two.

    2% picked this

  3. Correct

    Action movies that involve complicated

    Why this is right

    If [movie has crazy special effects scenes], then [super expensive to make]. Since Dramas & Comedy do not have crazy special effects scenes, they must not be super expensive.

    Skill tested: Parallel Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    85% picked this

  4. Adults usually feel a pleasant

    Bad Premise Match

    The premise isn’t conditional. It’s usually, rather than will always. The 2nd premise would need to talk about not listening to music they heard when they were adolescents, in order to match the form of the original.

    5% picked this

  5. All self-employed businesspeople have salaries

    Bad Conclusion Match

    A quick glance at the conclusion kills this. It has a different form and strength (not all X’s are Y) than the original argument’s conclusion (X’s are unlikely to be Y). The correct conclusion to pair with those two premises would have been, “Therefore, the bureaucrats’ salaries probably do not fluctuate with the fortunes of the general economy.”

    2% picked this

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