Logical Reasoning

PT135 · S1 · Q19 Last winter was mild enough

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Last winter was mild enough to allow most bird species to forage naturally, which explains why the proportion of birds visiting feeders was much lower than usual.

Conclusion

Last year's mild winter is responsible for this year's larger-than-usual bird population.

Evidence

The mild winter allowed many species to stay in their summer range all winter, rather than migrating (and a bunch of them never make it home when they migrate).

The mild winter allowed them forage naturally, rather than visit bird feeders.

Evaluation

There is causality in the evidence and the conclusion. We know that mild winter caused two things, from the evidence: forage naturally rather than visit birdfeeders, and stay local instead of migrating.

In order to say that the mild winter caused a bigger than average bird population, we want to argue that either / both of the effects we are told about in the evidence would result in a bigger than average bird population.

We know that when birds migrate over the winter, there's a typical rate of attrition (attrition normally means people dropping out or dropping dead). So if 1000 birds head south, maybe only 800 come back. But how does that compare to when birds say local over the winter? Does that lead to more of them surviving / dying?

We know that because local birds were able to forage, they didn't have to use birdfeeders. But what does that have to do with a larger than average bird population? Do more / fewer birds survive when they're foraging naturally vs. using birdfeeders?

Goal

We either want to hear that not migrating results in a net gain for bird population, or that foraging naturally rather than using birdfeeders results in a net gain for bird population.

19.

Which one of the following, if true, would most strengthen the reasoning in the argument?

  1. Increases in bird populations sometimes

    Very Weak

    This does fit the author's conclusion in a broad sense, but it's far too weak to have much impact. "Sometimes" means at least once, so answers on Strengthen / Weaken / Paradox that are saying "some / could / may / might / not all / not always" are almost always wrong, since they only give us one data point.

    16% picked this

  2. When birds do not migrate

    Unclear Impact

    We know the mating behaviors are "different", but does that mean better or worse? Are they having more babies or fewer babies than normal? Without knowing the effect on birth rate, we don't know whether this strengthens or weakens.

    16% picked this

  3. Correct

    Birds eating at feeders are

    Why this is right

    This gets at one of the comparisons we cared about. We know the mild winter led to more natural foraging, less bird feeding. Now that we're hearing that the latter is more vulnerable to predators than the former, we have reason to think that foraging will lead to a bigger bird population than eating at bird feeders.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    63% picked this

  4. Birds that remain in their

    Weakens

    This addresses the other comparison we were wondering about: what's better for bird population -- losing some birds to migration or staying local all winter. This answer choice presents a survival-related negative about staying local all winter: the birds might exhaust the local food supply (which could lead to a smaller bird population being able to live in the area).

    4% picked this

  5. Birds sometimes visit feeders even

    Opposite / Too Weak

    The author was making it seem like a good thing that the birds were avoiding feeders and foraging naturally, so this answer is moving away from a good thing (so it feels more like a slight weakening / backpedaling). Furthermore, like choice (A), since this is saying "sometimes" it's giving us an incredibly weak idea -- at least one bird once visited a feeder even though it could have found food by foraging.

    2% picked this

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