Logical Reasoning

PT134 · S1 · Q6 The number of tornadoes recorded

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The number of tornadoes recorded annually in North America has more than tripled since 1953.

Given that ...

the climatic factors affecting the creation of tornadoes are unchanged since 1953?

How can it be that ...

the number of tornadoes recorded each year has more than tripled since 1953?

Evaluate

On the vast majority of Paradox questions, the background idea(s) comes first and the surprise comes last. But on a small slice of them, that's inverted.

This is one of those. We can tell that we need to explain the 1st fact rather than the 2nd fact because the 2nd fact is saying that something is unchanged. You don't need an explanation for sameness. It's just inertia. We assume things stay the same unless perturbed by something.

We need to explain why the number of recorded tornadoes has tripled.

Since the underlying climatic factors that create tornadoes haven't changed, we presumably have the same number / incidence / occurrence of actual tornadoes now as we did in 1953.

It's the number of reported tornadoes that has gone up.

Goal

Let's look for an Incidence vs. Reporting type answer that is giving us a way to say,

6.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps to resolve the apparent discrepancy described above?

  1. The factors affecting the creation

    Weaker Impact

    We need something that changed after 1953 that has allowed us to record three times as many tornadoes. This is saying what changed after 1953 was our understanding of what factors create tornadoes. Having better knowledge of what creates a tornado might lead to better reporting of tornadoes, because if you know the causal factors that lead up to a tornado, then maybe you can devote more tracking resources to areas that have those causal factors. But since this answer isn't directly telling us that we've changed how we track tornadoes, it's not as clear or direct what impact it has on the surprise.

    9% picked this

  2. The intensity of the average

    Unclear Impact

    We need something that changed after 1953 that has allowed us to record three times as many tornadoes. This says that tornadoes are on average more intense. Does being more intense have any common sense connection to "we've recorded 3 times as many"? A little bit! I mean, it'd be easier to observe a more intense tornado than a less intense one. The smaller tornadoes might be the ones we were missing pre-1953, but now that tornadoes are more intense, even the smaller ones are now on our radar. This answer doesn't actually say the smaller tornadoes nowadays are more intense, though. The uptick in average intensity could be purely because the biggest tornadoes got worse. We were already noticing those monsters. The fact that they're bigger wouldn't make it easier to track the small tornadoes. Since this answer isn't directly telling us that we've changed how we track tornadoes, it's not as clear or direct what impact it has on the surprise.

    1% picked this

  3. The number of tornadoes recorded

    Irrelevant Comparison.

    We know that reported tornadoes have tripled since 1953. This answer is saying that 2025's number of tornadoes wasn't much bigger than 2020's. Cool, but the mystery remains why the number we're recording in 2020/2025 is three times higher than what we recorded in 1953.

    1% picked this

  4. The amount of property damage

    Unclear / Weaker Impact

    Wow another answer that kind of does have a common sense connection to more reporting. A tornado that comes and goes in the middle of nowhere would be easy to miss; it might not be recorded. Meanwhile, tornadoes that do property damage will probably be noticed, even if it's only after the fact (i.e. you wake up and see stuff strewn across your yard and realize there was a tornado last night). However, like (B), the problem here is that we don't know whether the uptick in damage is from major or minor tornadoes. Presumably the major tornadoes have always been tracked/reported pretty well. The ones we were probably missing in 1953 would be the smaller, more remote, more subtle ones. So if the extra damage is coming from the major tornadoes, this doesn't actually give us a way to explain why we'd be so much better at tracking the smaller tornadoes nowadays.

    1% picked this

  5. Correct

    Many more citizens are helping

    Why this is right

    This ultimately has the most direct explanation of why we could have 3 times as many reported tornadoes nowadays, even though the underlying number of tornadoes is the same: there are many more reporters!

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    87% picked this

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