Logical Reasoning

PT132 · S2 · Q11 Scientist: To study the comparative

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Scientist: To study the comparative effectiveness of two experimental medications for athlete's foot, a representative sample of people with athlete's foot were randomly assigned to one of two groups.

Scientist

To study a new med for athlete's foot, we split up a representative sample of people suffering from that condition into group 1 and 2.

Group 1 received only M. Group 2 received only N.

The only people whose athlete's foot was cured were those were were given M.

Reporter

So you're saying, "If you didn't have your athlete's foot cured, then you didn't receive M (i.e. you did receive N).

Evaluate

Since the scientist's final claim and the reporter's claim are both conditionals (the only / if), we should be highly suspicious that we're being tested on some Necessary vs. Sufficient error, i.e. a conditional logic mistake, an illegal reversal or negation.

The trigger "the only" is a sufficient / Left side indicator (by contrast, the much more common triggers "only" and "only if" are necessary / Right side indicators).

So the scientist's final claim looks like this:

Your AF was cured → You took M You didn't take M → Your AF wasn't cured

The trigger "If" is a sufficient / Left side indicator. So the reporter's claim looks like this:

Your AF wasn't cured → You didn't take M

We can see that the reporter's interpretation is an illegal reversal of what the scientist said. In conversational terms, the scientist is telling us that if you were in group N, you definitely didn't get your athlete's foot cured. If you were in group M, maybe you did. At least some people in group M had their athlete's foot cured. But it doesn't have to be all. Consider this example data:

100 ppl with athlete's foot, divided into M and N M: 10 cured, 40 not cured N: 50 not cured

It's true to say, . But it's not true to say (as the reporter does), . After all, there were 40 people whose AF wasn't cured but were given M.

Goal

We can describe the reporter's reasoning error in formal terms, by saying she confused necessary and sufficient conditions.

Or we can describe it in conversational terms, saying that she fails to consider that some of the people who were given M might have not had their athlete's foot cured.

11.

Which one of the following most accurately describes the reporter’s error in reasoning?

  1. Correct

    The reporter concludes from evidence

    Why this is right

    The scientist's evidence does establish that M can cure athlete's foot. After all, "the only people who athlete's foot was cured were given M". But the reporter takes it to another level. When she illegally reverses the conditional and turns it into this, Your AF wasn't cured ? You weren't given M then by contrapositive, she is saying You were given M ? Your AF was cured That contrapositive could be read as, "All people given M had their athlete's foot cured". Conversationally, if she's saying that anyone who's AF wasn't cured must have been in group N, she must be thinking that everyone who was in group M had their AF cured.

    Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    82% picked this

  2. The reporter illicitly draws a

    Bad Conclusion Match

    The reporter's conclusion is not about on the population as a whole. It's only talking about people in the study. "This means, then that if anyone in the study ..."

    3% picked this

  3. The reporter presumes, without providing

    Not Assumed: available outside study

    The reporter is only talking about people in the study, so she's not assuming anything about what is or isn't available to people outside the study.

    0% picked this

  4. The reporter fails to allow

    Not an Objection

    Would it hurt the reporter's claim if we said, "It's possible to cure athlete's foot without using M or N"? No. We can only hurt the reporter's claim by saying, "Some people in the study had athlete's foot that wasn't cured and did receive medication M".

    10% picked this

  5. The reporter presumes, without providing

    Not Assumed: people outside study

    The reporter's conclusion is solely about people in the study, so she isn't assuming anything about people in the general population. If we negated this purported assumption and said, "There is a sizeable subgroup of people whose athlete's foot will be cured only if they don't take M", that doesn't hurt the reporter at all. She's only talking about people in the study whose athlete's foot wasn't cured.

    6% picked this

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