Logical ReasoningDifficulty: Medium

PT131 S1 Q11 Explanation

Some statisticians believe that

A free, expert breakdown of this official LSAT Logical Reasoning question.

TopicsMust be True

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Stimulus

Some statisticians believe that the method called extreme value theory (EVT) is a powerful analytical tool. The curves generated by traditional statistical methods to analyze empirical data on human longevity predict that some humans would live beyond 130 years. According to the curves EVT generates, however, the limit on human life spans one has lived beyond the upper limits indicated by EVT analysis.

What this question is testing

Must be True

Your task

Break the argument into its conclusion and evidence, then do exactly what the question stem asks with that structure.

Common trap

Answers that sound relevant to the topic but don't connect to the argument's actual reasoning.

Winning move

Predict what a right answer must do, then test each choice against the conclusion-evidence gap.

Reading along? Open the full official question in LawHub — we show a fragment here and keep the reasoning in our own words.

The question
11.

Which one of the following can be properly inferred from the

Answer choices

  1. Too Strong9% picked this

    EVT is, in general, a more reliable method for projecting future trends based on past observations than

    This extends the application of these statistical models beyond the limit of human life spans. These models could be applied to other topics and predicting their reliability is unknown from the given statements.

  2. Correct78% picked this

    EVT fits the data about the highest observed human life spans more closely than do

    Why this is right

    This must be true since no one has lived beyond the upper limits of EVT analysis (124 years) and traditional analysis predicts that some humans could live beyond 130 years.

    Skill tested: Must be True · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

  3. Too Strong9% picked this

    According to the findings derived through the use of EVT, it is physically impossible for any human being to

    This goes beyond what can be known for sure. While no one has lived beyond the upper limits indicated by EVT analysis, that doesn't mean it's impossible for someone to do so.

  4. Too Strong2% picked this

    Given the results generated by EVT, there is no point in conducting research aimed at greatly extending the upper

    This suggests that it is impossible to extend human life beyond the limit indicated by EVT analysis, but that takes the information too far. Even though the data fits EVT analysis better than traditional analysis, the limits indicated by EVT analysis are not necessarily the actual limits of the human life span.

  5. Out of Scope - Opinion2% picked this

    Traditional statistical methods of empirical data analysis should eventually be replaced by some

    Whether EVT analysis should replace traditional analysis is not suggested by the statements, since nothing in the statements suggest a preference for one method over the other.

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