Logical Reasoning

PT131 · S1 · Q11 Some statisticians believe that

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Some statisticians believe that the method called extreme value theory (EVT) is a powerful analytical tool.

Given

The curves generated by traditional statistical methods to analyze empirical data on human longevity predict that some humans would live beyond 130 years.

According to the curves EVT generates, however, the limit on human life spans is probably between 113 and 124 years.

To date, no one has lived beyond the upper limits indicated by EVT analysis.

11.

Which one of the following can be properly inferred from the statements above?

  1. EVT is, in general, a

    Too Strong

    This extends the application of these statistical models beyond the limit of human life spans. These models could be applied to other topics and predicting their reliability is unknown from the given statements.

    9% picked this

  2. Correct

    EVT fits the data about

    Why this is right

    This must be true since no one has lived beyond the upper limits of EVT analysis (124 years) and traditional analysis predicts that some humans could live beyond 130 years.

    Skill tested: Must be True · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    78% picked this

  3. According to the findings derived

    Too Strong

    This goes beyond what can be known for sure. While no one has lived beyond the upper limits indicated by EVT analysis, that doesn't mean it's impossible for someone to do so.

    9% picked this

  4. Given the results generated by

    Too Strong

    This suggests that it is impossible to extend human life beyond the limit indicated by EVT analysis, but that takes the information too far. Even though the data fits EVT analysis better than traditional analysis, the limits indicated by EVT analysis are not necessarily the actual limits of the human life span.

    2% picked this

  5. Traditional statistical methods of empirical

    Out of Scope - Opinion

    Whether EVT analysis should replace traditional analysis is not suggested by the statements, since nothing in the statements suggest a preference for one method over the other.

    2% picked this

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