Logical ReasoningDifficulty: Medium

PT130 S4 Q21 Explanation

The odds of winning any major lottery

A free, expert breakdown of this official LSAT Logical Reasoning question.

TopicsNecessary Assumption

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Stimulus

The odds of winning any major lottery jackpot are extremely slight. However, the very few people who do win major jackpots receive a great deal of attention from the media. Thus, since most people come to have at least some awareness of events that receive extensive media overestimate the odds of their winning a major jackpot.

What this question is testing

Necessary Assumption

Your task

Find the assumption the argument requires in order for its conclusion to hold.

Common trap

Answers that would help the argument but aren't strictly required (sufficient, not necessary).

Winning move

Negate each choice — the right one breaks the argument when negated.

Reading along? Open the full official question in LawHub — we show a fragment here and keep the reasoning in our own words.

The question
21.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the

Answer choices

  1. Too Strong / Term Shift12% picked this

    Most people who overestimate the likelihood of winning a major jackpot do so at least in part because media coverage of other people who

    The argument assumes that some people who overestimate the odds of their winning a major jackpot are influenced by extensive media coverage making them aware of the event. But to say this is true for most of those who overestimate the likelihood of winning a major jackpot goes too far. Furthermore, the argument involves awareness of events that receive extensive media coverage, while this is much more specific about how the media coverage leads one to believe the odds of winning are greater than is the case.

  2. Out of Scope1% picked this

    Very few people other than those who win major jackpots receive a great deal of

    People other than those who win major jackpots are not relevant to the argument.

  3. Too Strong10% picked this

    If it were not for media attention, most people who purchase lottery tickets would not overestimate their chances

    The argument does not conclude that most people overestimate their chances of winning a jackpot.

  4. Correct74% picked this

    Becoming aware of individuals who have won a major jackpot leads at least some people to incorrectly estimate their own chances

    Why this is right

    This bridges the gap between awareness and increasing one’s estimate of the likelihood of winning the jackpot.

    Skill tested: Necessary Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

  5. Too Strong2% picked this

    At least some people who are heavily influenced by the media do not believe that the odds of their winning

    That some people believe their odds of winning are higher than is the case, does not mean that some people believe their odds of winning are significant. Significant is not defined and could mean many different things depending on who is asked.

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