If Juan went to the party

Answer choices

1. A

   Wrong Structure / Wrong Validity1% picked this

   According to the newspaper, all eight teams in the soccer tournament have an equal chance of winning it. If so, then we will probably

   According to the newspaper, ~W all eight teams in the soccer tournament have an equal chance of winning it [we will probably not win the tournament. If we do lose our goalie we will LG → W probably not win the tournament. If so [we will probably not win the ~W → LG tournament], then we will probably lose our goalie. The conclusion in the stimulus is a statement of fact, while this conclusion is a conditional relationship. Furthermore, this argument is flawed, while the one in the stimulus is valid.

   1%
2. B

   Wrong Structure1% picked this

   Kapinski, our new neighbor, is probably friendly, for Kapinski sells insurance and most people who

   for Kapinski sells insurance. SI Most people who sell insurance SI → W are friendly. Kapinski, our new neighbor, is probably friendly This argument relies on a positive reasoning structure, while the stimulus rests on a contrapositive reasoning structure.

   1%
3. C

   Wrong Structure / Wrong Validity14% picked this

   If the lottery were fair, the person who won the lottery would not have been likely to win it. Thus, since this person would

   If the lottery were fair, the F → (PW → ~LW) person who won the lottery would not have been likely to win it. won the lottery] would have been likely to win the lottery if it were unfair This person [the person who ~F → (PW → LW) The lottery was probably ~F unfair. The complex conditionals in this answer are not present in the argument in the stimulus. Furthermore, the argument rests on an assumption and so is flawed, while the argument in the stimulus is valid.

   14%
4. D

   Correct82% picked this

   If Clarissa missed the bus today, it is quite unlikely that she would have gotten to work on time. So, it is quite unlikely

   Why this is right

   If Clarissa missed the bus today, MB → ~WOT it is quite unlikely that she would have gotten to work on time. She [Clarissa] actually was at WOT work on time today. it is quite unlikely that Clarissa ~MB missed the bus. This contraposes a conditional relationship and matches the argument in the stimulus.

   Skill tested: Parallel · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   82%
5. E

   Wrong Structure2% picked this

   This year's election will probably be fair. But Popov probably will not win unless the election is unfair. So, Popov

   This year's election will probably be fair. F Popov will not win unless the election is W → ~F unfair. Popov will not win the election. ~W While this answer matches the structure of the contrapositive, it does not match the degree. The conclusion in the stimulus is "highly unlikely," while in this answer it "will not." The conclusion in this answer is too strong.

   2%