Logical Reasoning

PT128 · S2 · Q11 A recently completed study

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A recently completed study of several hundred subjects, all of approximately the same age, showed that those who exercised regularly during the study were much less likely to die during the study.

Conclusion

Exercise can actually increase one's life span.

Evidence

In a study of several hundred similar aged people, people who exercised regularly during the study were much less likely to die.

Evaluate

Because the evidence involves a Curious Comparison (people who were X were much less likely to be Y) and the evidence uses a Causal verb (X can actually increase Y), we can use our Curious Fact / Explanation mindset.

Curious Fact ... why was there a correlation between exercising regularly and living longer? Author's Explanation ... exercising is causing them to live longer

We want to consider Alternate Explanations and how plausible the Author's Explanation is. Whenever there's a correlation between two factors (in this case, regular exercise and living longer), authors will conclude one thing caused the other.

We need to consider Reverse Causality and Third Factor alternate explanations.

In this instance, Reverse Causality doesn't make any sense. We couldn't argue that not dying caused them to exercise regularly.

But it makes sense to argue there could be a Third Factor, such as lack of illness, that is creating the correlation.

People who are sick / enfeebled are both less likely to exercise regularly and more likely to die.

Goal

Since this is Strengthen, we need an answer choice to rule out an alternate explanation for the correlation, or increase the plausibility that exercise can increase life span.

11.

Which one of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?

  1. The subjects who did not

    Weakens

    This provides an alternate explanation for why the non-exercisers died more often. It wasn't because they weren't exercising; it was because they were eating crappy food.

    8% picked this

  2. The subjects who did not

    No Impact

    We don't care why they didn't exercise, unless that reason (f.e. they have cancer and have lost the energy to jog around town) is itself causally linked to death. Being too busy / lacking time isn't a common sense cause of death, so this detail is irrelevant.

    1% picked this

  3. A large number of the

    Weakens, if anything

    This has no impact because the answer isn't telling us whether these deaths were with people who were or weren't exercising. But if it were telling us "the people who died had a bunch of preexisting conditions / illnesses", then it would weaken by providing an alternate explanation for why they died (illness, not lack of exercise).

    2% picked this

  4. Correct

    Whether or not a given

    Why this is right

    This helps to rule out our alternate explanation that whether or not you were exercising was really caused by your underlying health in the first place. Our alternate explanation was, "Maybe it's just that the people who were already sick/enfeebled were not able to exercise, whereas the vital/healthy people were. Obviously the sick/enfeebled people died before the vital/healthy people." By telling us that whether or not a subject exercised was random, it rules out the idea that the Exercise-Group was already healthier and more likely to live longer to begin with.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    79% picked this

  5. A person who exercises regularly

    No Impact

    Why someone would tend to exercise regularly is irrelevant to this argument. We're just trying to figure out whether in this study the regular exercise was the causal difference-maker for living longer.

    11% picked this

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