Logical Reasoning

PT127 · S3 · Q24 The local radio station

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The local radio station will not win the regional ratings race this year.

Evidence

In the past ten years the station has never finished better than fifth place in the ratings.

The station’s manager has not responded to its dismal ratings by changing its musical format or any key personnel.

The competition has often sought to respond to changing tastes in music and has aggressively recruited the region’s top radio personalities.

Conclusion

The local radio station will not win the regional ratings race this year.

Evaluate

The conclusion predicts that the local radio station will not win the regional ratings race. This is based on the fact that the radio station has never finished better than fifth place in the ratings in the past ten years and other evidence about what has happened in the past. However, the present is not doomed to forever repeat the past.

24.

The reasoning in which one of the following is most similar to that in the argument above?

  1. Every swan I have seen

    Wrong Flaw

    This argument contains a generalization about all swans based on evidence about some swans, while the error of reasoning in the stimulus assuming what is true of the past will be true of the future.

    2% picked this

  2. A fair coin was fairly

    Too Weak

    The degree of this conclusion is not as strong as that in the stimulus.

    16% picked this

  3. All lions are mammals. Therefore

    Wrong validity / Wrong Reasoning

    This argument is valid, while the one in the stimulus is not. Furthermore, this argument rests on conditional reasoning, while the argument in the stimulus rests on comparative reasoning.

    2% picked this

  4. Correct

    Recently stock prices have always

    Why this is right

    This argument also makes a prediction about the future based on past events.

    Skill tested: Parallel · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    73% picked this

  5. Only trained swimmers are lifeguards,

    Wrong Validity / Wrong Reasoning

    This argument is valid, while the one in the stimulus is not. Furthermore, this argument rests on conditional reasoning, while the argument in the stimulus rests on comparative reasoning.

    7% picked this

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