Economist: Some people argue that when large countries split into several small countries, the world economy is harmed by increased barriers to free trade in the form of an increased number of national tariffs.
Conclusion (Therefore)
Dividing large countries into several small ones does not increase barriers to free trade.
Evidence
Small countries do not think of themselves as economically self-sufficient.
Evaluate
Since we just have one Premise leading up to the Conclusion, our missing link is pretty simple: if Premise, then Conclusion.
If small countries don't think of themselves as economically self-sufficient, then it doesn't increase barriers to free trade.
The evidence didn't provide us any rule that proves → not increase barriers to free trade so we know the correct answer will have to be a rule structured like that.
Goal
We should look for, ~Think of self as econ self-suff → ~Incr barrier to free trade
or the contrapositive, Incr barrier to free trade → Think of self as econ self-suff