Logical Reasoning

PT122 · S1 · Q16 With decreased production this year

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With decreased production this year in many rice-growing countries, prices of the grain on world markets have increased.

Curious Fact

Why is the price of rice on world markets higher?

Author's Explanation

Most of the world's rice production isn't sold on world markets. Most of it is controlled by governments, who distribute it for local consumption.

Since the open market for rice has a relatively small supply, the decrease in rice production can have a significant affect on rice available to world markets.

Evaluate

We weaken causal explanations in one of two ways: - Point to some other way to explain the curious fact or - Undermine the plausibility of the author's way

Goal

Look for an answer that provides some other way to explain why the price of rice on world markets is higher. or Undermine the story that these decreases in production have significantly affected the amount of rice available on world markets.

16.

Which one of the following, if true, would most call into question the analysts' explanation of the price increase?

  1. Rice-importing countries reduce purchases of

    No Impact

    This tells us an Effect of the more-costly rice situation, but we're looking to investigate the Cause of the more-costly rice situation.

    5% picked this

  2. In times of decreased rice

    Opposite / Irrelevant

    This helps the author to argue that there is a shortage of rice supply, in a sense, since governments are now hoarding their rice and not even distributing it. More to the point, though, it's kind of irrelevant to the author's hypothesis, since the rice that the government controls is a separate pile from the rice on the world market, and the author's hypothesis is about how much rice is available on the world market. This answer doesn't tell us anything that seems to impact how much rice is available on the world market. It just tells us about how the government does something different with its private rice stash.

    8% picked this

  3. Correct

    In times of decreased rice

    Why this is right

    This hurts the plausibility of the author's causal storyline. She was saying that there would be a shortage on the world market in times of decreased rice production, but this answer is saying, "Actually, no ... in times of decreased rice production, the governments that have a private stash actually funnel some of their price into the world market (filling in the shortage)." In order for a shortage of rice on world markets to cause a price increase, there needs to be a shortage of rice! This answer calls that assumption into question.

    Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    68% picked this

  4. Governments that distribute the rice

    Compatible

    The two things that drive prices up are less supply and more demand. This answer is tricky, because it kind of sounds like it's giving an alternate explanation for why the price of rice went up: more demand. When rice production is decreased, governments start buying rice from world markets, so it sounds like there is a new buyer on the scene, and thus that higher demand might raise prices. The problem with picking this is that it's not really offering an alternate explanation so much as adding onto the existing one. Since we know that the global production of rice goes partly to world market (small %) and the rest to governments that control and distribute rice (large %), it's an open question about what happens when there is less rice production than normal. Does the world market get its normal amount, and the government portion is reduced. Do the governments get their normal amount and the world market is reduced. Or is it that the world market and the government portion are both reduced in similar proportion? It seems like our author's explanation is compatible with the 2nd or 3rd scenario, and this answer seems like it could be the 3rd scenario. Meanwhile, the correct answer brings us closer to the 1st scenario, where we are thinking that the world market actually gets its normal amount.

    18% picked this

  5. During reduced rice harvests, rice-importing

    Out of Scope: other crops

    Whether or not countries import other crops during rice shortages has very little, if anything, to do with why the price of rice went up.

    2% picked this

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