At the end of the year

Answer choices

1. A

   Out of Scope: hiring policies4% picked this

   Policies at Wilson’s with regard to hiring salespeople have not become more lax over the

   The only thing that can affect the conclusion being true is whether the criterion for giving these awards has always been the same. If the criterion for the award has always been "top 1/3", then the conclusion follows logically. But if the criterion shifted from "the top 50%" to "the top 1/3", then the conclusion wouldn't follow. 15 years ago (top 50%) 100 employees, 50 get awards, 50 don't now (top 1/3) 90 employees, 30 get awards, 60 don't With this shift in criterion, the conclusion doesn't follow. There are more people being passed over now than in the past. This answer is talking about how strict their hiring policies are, but this argument is purely about the mathematics of what share of employees get an award. So information about hiring practices can't seal the deal logically.

   4%
2. B

   Weakens12% picked this

   The number of salespeople at Wilson’s has increased over the past

   This answer feels very counterintuitive. Since the number of people getting awards was declining, and since the author was saying that the number of people not-getting awards was also declining, it feels like there should be fewer salespeople, not more. If the criterion for the award has always been "top 1/3", and the number of salespeople has increased, then conclusion would be contradicted. 15 years ago (top 1/3) 120 employees, 40 get awards, 80 don't now (top 1/3) 150 employees, 50 get awards, 100 don't Since this answer seems to contradict the conclusion, it definitely doesn't allow us to prove the conclusion.

   12%
3. C

   Correct59% picked this

   The criterion used by Wilson’s for selecting its award recipients has remained the same for

   Why this is right

   The only thing that can affect the conclusion being true is whether the criterion for giving these awards has always been the same. If the criterion for the award has always been "top 1/3", then the conclusion follows logically.

   Skill tested: Sufficient Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   59%
4. D

   Out of Scope: sales figures15% picked this

   The average total sales figures for Wilson’s salespeople have been declining

   The only thing that can affect the conclusion being true is whether the criterion for giving these awards has always been the same. If the criterion for the award has always been "top 1/3", then the conclusion follows logically. But if the criterion shifted from "the top 50%" to "the top 1/3", then the conclusion wouldn't follow. 15 years ago (top 50%) 100 employees, 50 get awards, 50 don't now (top 1/3) 90 employees, 30 get awards, 60 don't With this shift in criterion, the conclusion doesn't follow. There are more people being passed over now than in the past. This answer is talking about total sales figures, but this argument is purely about the mathematics of what share of employees get an award. So information about overall sales can't seal the deal logically.

   15%
5. E

   Out of Scope: how it calculates9% picked this

   Wilson’s calculates its salespeople’s sales figures in the same way as it did

   This is similar to the correct answer, but we don't need to know that the company uses the same methods nowadays to rank all their salespeople's performance. We need to know, once those rankings are established, how Wilson's decides which ones get the award. If 15 years ago, the share of employees getting the award was 1/3 or less, then the conclusion mathematically follows, no matter how Wilson's decided on those sales figures.

   9%