Logical Reasoning

PT119 · S4 · Q23 The fact that people who

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The fact that people who exercise vigorously are sick less often than average does not prove that vigorous exercise prevents illness, for whether one exercises vigorously or not depends in part on one’s preexisting state of health.

Conclusion

The correlation between vigorous exercise and infrequent sickness doesn't prove that vigorous exercise causes the absence of illness.

Evidence

(It could be reverse causality). Maybe "not being sick" is a precondition for doing vigorous exercise.

Evaluate

When we do Parallel questions, we're initially thinking - is there conditional logic / quantifier stuff here? if so, let's turn it into Algebra. - if not, or if we already have some sort of reasoning pattern vocabulary to describe it (like a Famous Flaw or a Method of Reasoning answer), we'll use that. - if not, we'll try to think about what sort of Principle the author is using.

In this case, we're supposed to be thinking,

If this were going to be a flawed argument, the author would present a correlation between exercise and health and then conclude that the exercise causes the health (while failing to consider alternative explanations, such as Reverse Causality — maybe the health causes the exercise — or Third Factor — maybe wealth is what allows us to stay in good health and to have the disposable time to exercise).

Since this isn't a flawed argument, the author is doing the responsible thing LSAT wants us to do with correlations -- saying that a correlation doesn't prove one thing causes another, because it could suggest a cause/effect relationship in reverse as well.

Goal

Look for something resembling this: - The fact that X and Y are correlated does not prove that X causes Y - maybe Y comes first (maybe X depends on Y)

23.

The reasoning in which one of the following arguments is most similar to that in the argument above?

  1. Correct

    Having strong verbal skills encourages

    Why this is right

    The "so" tells us that this conclusion is the second half. Is it saying "a correlation between X and Y doesn't prove that X causes Y"? Sure — the correlation between habitual reading and verbal skills doesn't prove that habitual reading causes verbal skills. Is the evidence suggesting the possibility of reverse causality, that verbal skill came first and led to habitual reading? Yes, it's saying that "having strong verbal causes more habitual reading".

    Skill tested: Parallel · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    48% picked this

  2. Musical and mathematical skills are

    Weak Conclusion / Evidence Match

    The "so" tells us that this conclusion is the second half. Is it saying "a correlation between X and Y doesn't prove that X causes Y"? Not quite — it's not a correlation when you say some X's are Y. A correlation is a lumpiness in the data where it's asymmetrically tilted. - people who are X tend to be Y - most X's are Y - people who are X are more likely than those who aren't to be Y So we could stop reading there. But, if we checked the premise, is it pointing out the possibility of Reverse Causality? No, it's pointing out the possibility of Third Factor, that X and Y are both caused by Z (perceiving abstract patterns).

    4% picked this

  3. Since how people choose to

    Bad Conclusion Match

    The "since" tells us that the first half is a premise, so the second claim is the conclusion. Is the second half saying "a correlation between X and Y doesn't prove that X causes Y"? Not quite — it's not a correlation. It's saying "The fact that a person chooses a style doesn't prove that _____ ." The conclusion is supposed to be saying "the fact that X and Y are correlated doesn't prove that ____ ." A person choosing a style is a causal relationship, not a correlation. So we don't need to keep reading this one.

    9% picked this

  4. The fact that taller children

    Weak Conclusion Match Bad Evidence Match

    The "for" tells us that the second half is a premise, so the first claim is the conclusion. Is the first half saying "a correlation between X and Y doesn't prove that X causes Y"? Not quite. It's saying "the fact that tallness often is correlated with outperforming doesn't prove tallness is a decisive advantage". That's a weird match for "doesn't prove that the tallness is causing the outperforming". More distinctly, the evidence is third factor (more time practicing bball), not reverse cause (playing better makes them taller).

    36% picked this

  5. The fact that two diseases

    Bad Conclusion Match

    The "for" tells us that the second half is a premise, so the first claim is the conclusion. Is the first half saying "a correlation between X and Y doesn't prove that X causes Y"? No. It's saying that "having similar symptoms doesn't prove it's the same underlying cause". In other words, "just because X and Y are similar, doesn't mean they're both caused by Z". That's too poor a match for our original conclusion to keep considering this one.

    3% picked this

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