Logical Reasoning

PT117 · S2 · Q14 The economy is doing badly

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The economy is doing badly.

Information

The economy is doing badly: We have a real estate slump that's been going on for a while. Car sales are at their lowest in years.

If real estate was looking goor or if car sales were looking good, then it would still be possible to say "the economy is healthy".

causal (X makes it quite probable that Y) pivot (But)

When real estate is bad and car sales are bad, it's quite probable that the economy is doing badly.

Evaluate

This gives us a couple facts about the current economy and then a couple considerations about whether we should conclude the economy is doing badly or not.

There aren't any obvious wording clues to go off, but the last sentence seems tempting. It has a Pivot, and we know that when Inference paragraphs use a Pivot word (like "but, yet, however, nonetheless) to introduce the final claim, that final claim almost always plays a .... [wait for it] .... pivotal role in the correct answer.

There is also some causal language in the final sentence, that having bad real estate and car sales at the same time is a strong indicator of bad economy.

Goal

It's hard to make any prediction here, so we'll just look for the most provable answer we can find, but our suspicions are that the final sentence will be important.

14.

Which one of the following inferences is most strongly supported by the information above?

  1. If car sales are at

    Too Strong: likely

    This is way too strong of a statement. We think that if car sales and real estate are doing badly then it's likely the economy is doing badly. But if just one of them is doing badly, we have no ammunition for saying it's likely that the economy is doing badly. The author went out of her way to say that if only one of them is doing badly, the economy overall could still be healthy.

    1% picked this

  2. If the economy is doing

    Reversed Logic

    Our last sentence can function like a "soft" conditional (because its outcome isn't certain, but merely probable). real estate bad and ? economy probably bad car sales bad As soon as we see this answer is putting "bad economy" into the trigger position (whereas the information we were given put it into the outcome position), we can tell that this is attempting some illegal reversal.

    2% picked this

  3. If the real estate market

    Too Strong: likely

    First of all, the passage gave us no mechanism at all for supporting / proving that the economy is healthy. If we wanted to pretend the 4th sentence were a conditional, we could say this: real estate healthy or ? possible econ is healthy car sales healthy The idea of "X is consistent with Y" just means that they don't contradict. It is possible for X and Y to both occur. So while we can support the notion that a healthy real estate market can coincide with a healthy economy, we can't support the idea that a healthy real estate market by itself makes a healthy economy probable.

    17% picked this

  4. Correct

    If the economy is in

    Why this is right

    Our last sentence can function like a "soft" conditional (because its outcome isn't certain, but merely probable). real estate bad and ? economy probably bad car sales bad The contrapositive of that would look like this answer choice: economy probably real estate good healthy ? or car sales good (i.e. not bad) Consider this analogy: Danielle knows that when both of her parents are mad at the same time, it is quite probable that they are having a fight with each other. Thus, if one of her parents is in a good mood, then it is unlikely that they are having a fight with each other. Since X and Y occurring together make Z probable, if Z isn't occurring, then it's improbable that X and Y are both occurring.

    Skill tested: Most Supported · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    68% picked this

  5. The bad condition of the

    Reversed Logic

    Our last sentence can function like a "soft" conditional: real estate bad and ? economy probably bad car sales bad The word "implies" is the same as the conditional arrow. "X implies Y" = X ? Y So this answer is just reading the conditional idea backwards. economy bad ? bad real estate & bad car sales

    11% picked this

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