In a poll of eligible voters conducted

Answer choices

1. A

   Correct70% picked this

   Of Yeung’s supporters, a smaller percentage were eligible to vote than the percentage of Panitch’s supporters who

   Why this is right

   Our job here, "Given that Panitch was leading in the poll, how did Yeung win the election?" This answer says, "Yeung won because a smaller percentage of his supporters were eligible to vote." That's counterintuitive. Having a smaller group of your supporters be eligible to vote would help you lose, not win.

   Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   70%
2. B

   Helps Explain13% picked this

   A third candidate, Mulhern, conducted a press conference on the morning of the election and

   Our job here, "Given that Panitch was leading in the poll, how did Yeung win the election?" This answer says, "Yeung won because a third candidate dropped out, and (so all their voters switched to Yeung)." For example, say in the 2020 election, it was Trump vs. Biden vs. Andrew Yang They do a poll and ask people the night before the election, "who's your favorite candidate". The results: 40% - Trump 35% - Biden 15% - Yang 10% - others, combined That makes it seem like Trump will win. But if Yang realizes he has no chance and drops out the morning of the election (publicly, via press conference), then Yang voters will have to decide whether to vote for Biden or Trump, and that could make a previous underdog like Biden still win the election by a large margin. Naturally, this answer doesn't tell us that Mulhern voters defected to Yeung once they learned their candidate was no longer running, but it creates the opportunity to tell that story, which still can help explain the discrepancy.

   13%
3. C

   Helps Explain4% picked this

   The poll’s questions were designed by staff members of

   Our job here, "Given that Panitch was leading in the poll, how did Yeung win the election?" This answer says, "Yeung lost the poll because it was rigged by Panitch's campaign. Yeung was, in reality, more popular among the electorate. But since the poll was designed by members of Panitch's campaign, they structured it so that people would be more inclined to say favorable things about their preferred candidate". That's why survey didn't match election: survey was biased towards Panitch. Again, this answer only provides the suggestive foundations for such a story, but that's still better than what the correct answer is does (provide foundations for the opposite story).

   4%
4. D

   Helps Explain4% picked this

   Of the poll respondents supporting Yeung, 70 percent described the election as “important” or “very important,” while 30 percent of respondents

   Our job here, "Given that Panitch was leading in the poll, how did Yeung win the election?" This answer says, "Yeung won the election because her voters actually showed up to the polls. Panitch's voters just responded to the poll but they flaked on election day because only 30% of them considered the election important." Survey didn't match election because survey didn't account for likelihood of whether that person would actually vote.

   4%
5. E

   Helps Explain8% picked this

   The poll, conducted on a Monday, surveyed persons in the downtown area, and the percentage of Yeung’s supporters who work downtown is

   Our job here, "Given that Panitch was leading in the poll, how did Yeung win the election?" This answer says, "Yeung lost the poll because it was taken in a potentially unrepresentative area of town, which bends towards Panitch supporters. If they had polled out in the suburbs and rural areas, they probably would have encountered a lot more Yeung voters." Survey didn't match election because survey's sample was unrepresentative of the overall city.

   8%